Tippeligaen – Bodo Glimt v Tromso Preview (31/7/16)

BODO-TIL

Bodo Glimt preview

The hosts have really found some form since the summer break, going unbeaten in four matches and picking up 8 points during this period. Prior to that they had a very poor run but this is the sort of side who can get hot quickly, similar to how they did last season. It’s helped that they've had a fairly consistent team selection too, with the striking trio of Jevtovic, Azemi & Olsen all playing much better of late. The Bodo attack has scored 8 goals in 3 games which is a very good return. They probably should've won last week but blew a 2-0 lead at Sogndal. Nevertheless, overall it was a positive performance. Unless there is some sort of hangover from blowing that lead, then all seems pretty rosy in the Bodo Glimt garden. Squad condition is in pretty good condition with few injuries recently.

Tromso preview

The visitors came from 0-2 down to draw against Stabaek last week. They didn't play particularly well for about an hour of that fixture but ended really strongly to earn a point. I think TIL have performed pretty well since the summer break, without really getting the results they deserved. It feels like they should’ve obtained more points. Offensively, they've looked much better and willing to be more positive. Striker Sofiene Moussa is injured for this match after fracturing his hand last weekend. Starting goalkeeper Gudmund Kongshavn will also likely miss the game due to an ongoing knee issue. Tromso have really missed his presence in between the sticks. At the back, key man Simen Wangberg is suspended yet again which means a youngster like Gjesdal or Gundersen will get the nod. Tromso have had squad issues all year with injuries and suspensions and maybe it's gradually starting to wear them down. They’ve been surprisingly good on the road this season and this is their shortest away trip against their local rivals.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Here we have the ‘derby of north Norway’ and for both teams this is one of their biggest games of the season. Bodo won the reverse fixture 2-1, so Tromso will be desperate for revenge. I expect a really passionate and committed performance at both ends of the field and it should be a very interesting game. I will personally side with Bodo and the overs in this affair. I just feel like they are the team who have more momentum and are in the middle of a pretty good run. This team got hot at a similar stage last season and whilst they are in this sort of form, it’s probably best to side with them. I got caught out when backing overs in this fixture last year, with Bodo only winning 1-0 in a tight encounter. But the way both teams have been playing recently surely means there will be plenty of chances. Each offense is firing pretty nicely and unless both get cagey for this derby affair, I think we’ll see end to end football. I personally see both teams scoring, but ultimately at the end of the day I think a home win will be the result. Something like 3-1 or 3-2 could be on the cards. So Bodo -0..25 and over 2.75 goals, both at decent prices will be my picks here.

Prediction: 3-1
Recommended bet 1 unit: Bodo Glimt -0.25 @ 1.92 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80)
Recommended bet: 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @ 2.02 (minimum odds acceptable 1.85)

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