The northern outfit played really well in their first two matches after the summer break but were disappointing at Godset last week, slumping to an uninspiring 0-01 defeat. Tromso went back into their shell and reverted to their more natural self. It was nice to see them open up more, but maybe because they played a big team then it brought about a change of approach. Tromso have been suffering with plenty of injuries this season which has tested out their squad depth. The most notable casualty here is #1 goalkeeper Gudmund Kongshavn. I thought his backup Filip Loncaric was pretty dodgy a couple of weeks ago and responsible for at least one goal. TIL are traditionally a very strong home side but have lost 3 of their last 5 here at Alfheim Stadion. I’m not sure what’s going on with this, but sooner or later I expect them to return to their home-dominant ways.
Toni Ordinas is still unbeaten as Stabaek coach following the sacking of Billy McKinlay. The Scottish manager was totally ineffective here but so far the team have looked much better under Ordinas. That said, they’ve only faced a bang out of form Lillestrom and a Brann side who are usually quite poor away. This will be his toughest test yet in the far north of Norway after a long trek. Stabaek have actually won their last two away matches at least and the team is playing with more confidence under the new coach. He says he is going into every match with the ‘intention to win and nothing less’ I think we’ll see Stabaek have quite a positive gameplan here and they won’t just settle for a point. Squad condition is good with few injuries and no suspensions.
Conclusion & Betting analysis
I was tempted both by Tromso -0.25 & Over 2.5 goals here. The way I see things, TIL are the better side and despite some poor recent home results, are usually pretty formidable at Alfheim Stadion. I was really impressed with their performances against Lillestrom & Haugesund and I think we’ll see them revert back to that sort of positivity again. But until they manage to win again at home then I’m not going to get involved. It could be getting a bit mental with some players now and they are probably sick of hearing how poor their record is here this season. There are also question marks surrounding Stabaek. Ordinas has only been in charge for two games and seems more tactically astute than his predecessor. Stabaek aren’t making as many individual errors at the back and could maybe frustrate Tromso. I think a home win and over 2.5 goals is a decent possibility, but I simply lack the confidence to back either bet. Tromso -0.25 and over 2.25 or 2.5 goals are certainly very tempting. But in this instance I’ll stay disciplined and play it safe, waiting for better opportunities.
Recommended bet: None