France Ligue 1 – Lyon v Caen Preview (19/8/16)

OL-SMC

Lyon preview

OL were dominant and did a thoroughly professional job on Nancy last week, easily winning 3-0 away from home. Key striker Alexandre Lacazette scored a hat trick to add even more value on to his potential transfer fee. A number of clubs are rumoured to be interested in him but he won't be allowed to go cheaply. Lacazette himself seems to be enjoying life and might even be trying to prove a point to certain clubs by putting on a show. For this match, Lyon are missing a couple of fullbacks, Jeremy Morel & Christophe Jallet because of fitness issues. Left winger Ghezzal isn’t included in the squad due a possible impending transfer away from the club and his mind isn’t right. Coach Bruno Genesio has a great record at this stadium, winning 8 out of 10 matches. OL have yet to lose at Le Grand Stade since it opened in early January.

Caen preview

The Normandy outfit were involved in one of the matches of the round last weekend, coming from 0-2 down to beat Lorient 3-2. They were aided by playing against 10 men for over an hour but Caen still deserve plenty of credit for their comeback. Under Patrice Garande they will always be one of the more attractive sides in the division and play positive football. Team news for this match is again favourable, although winger Herve Bazile misses out because of a family bereavement. Star striker Andy Delort is still technically a Caen player, although he’ll almost certainly leave before the end of the transfer window. He’s not included in the squad again tonight. His replacement Ivan Santini scored on his debut and looks like a good addition.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

This should be a really good match to watch between a couple of teams renowned for their attacking nature. Bruno Genesio has really gone back to the traditional Lyon way of entertainment and his side are constantly a threat at the moment. When you quality in your side like Lacazette then goals can be scored at any time, from anywhere. Most teams will come here to Le Grand Stade and park to bus, or at least attempt to. This isn't usually a good idea because Lyon will often find a way to break a team down and win to nil. Caen are unlikely to be so negative though. The visitors will at very least retain a strong counter attacking threat. Patrice Garande is a natural gambler and willing to have a go, even in fixtures like this. Last season Lyon won 4-1 but if Caen had taken their chances then they could easily have gotten something out of the game. I wouldn't be surprised if Lyon covered a -1.25 handicap here but because Caen carry a goal threat I’d be reluctant to back that line. Instead, over 2.75 goals looks like a solid punt. This feels like an over game to me between two attack minded teams, which is rare in French football. Unless both keepers have an amazing evening or a ton of chances get missed then this match should contain at least three goals.

Prediction: 3-1
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @ 1.89 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)

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