AFK surprised everyone by beating Tromso 2-1 away from home last week. They rode their luck a bit in the second half but their produced an excellent first 45 mins to get themselves ahead. Aalesund haven’t had the greatest of seasons, but back to back wins will surely have improved confidence within the squad. It was noticeable how much more relaxed and free the players seemed and they were able to impose themselves on the game. AFK are still inside the relegation zone and their position is fragile, but maybe they can continue their good run here. The attacking trio of Boli, Gyasi & Mos have been linking up together well and you’d think they will create quite a few chances against this porous Molde defence.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men were another team who claimed a much needed victory last week. They beat Bodo Glimt 3-2 to snap a six game winless streak and ease the pressure on their manager. Solskjaer had promised a more attacking style and he duly delivered on that as Molde looked much more threatening in the final third. Everyone knows that MFK have defensive issues. Half of that is down to injuries, but the balance of the side hasn’t been right. Right back has been a nightmare for them during the whole of 2016 and they've attempted to fix that problem by signing Christopher Remmer from Danish club FC Copenhagen. Whether or not he can provide the instant upgrade they need their remains to be seen. Molde will likely remain dodgy at the back but can take a lot of confidence from how much more dangerous their offense looked last week.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Molde are nearly odds-on in places to win this match and I don’t know how anyone could seriously consider backing them at that price considering how poor their away statistics are this season. Only four teams in the entire league have a worse road record than MFK in 2016 and they head into this contest having lost their last four consecutive away games. They are nowhere near as confident in these sort of fixtures, although it doesn’t mean they can’t win today. I still think Aalesund could be a very fragile side if you manage to put them under pressure. I’m not really sure how Tromso didn't score against them in the second half last week, a number of big chances were created. I think this will be a really open game of football, capable of going either way. It’s likely to be end to end, full of chances. The obvious pick is over 3 goals. I think at worst this bet will result in a push. With both offenses in better shape of late, coupled with a lot of dodgy defending, I’d say there’s a strong chance of 4+ goals being netted.
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 3 goals @ 1.85 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)