Tippeligaen – Molde v Bodo Preview (6/8/16)

MFK-BODO

Molde preview

MFK are in a bit of a mess at the moment and shockingly head into this contest having lost 5 of their last 6 games! The one they didn’t lose was against Start which just shows how bad things have become. A number of things have been to blame. Firstly, players transfers both in and out of the club have been extremely detrimental. They've lost key individuals, especially in attack and although replacements have now come in, they all need time to settle. The other problem has been injuries, especially in defence which has left them crippled. This has mostly been a problem in the fullback position, a problem accentuated by the loss of Joona Toivio for the rest of the season with a broken collar bone. Guys like Sewankambo, Flo & Rindaroy are all doubtful once more, so Molde might be forced to go with complete makeshift options again. Coach, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has promised a return to the ‘old’ Molde of a few months ago when they killed teams with great attacking strength. They are going to need to as well because it’s extremely hard to imagine them keeping a clean sheet right now!

Bodo Glimt preview

The visitors’ four game unbeaten run came to an abrupt halt last week as they got hammered 0-3 at home to northern rivals Tromso. Had they taken early chances then they probably could've been 2 0r 3 nil up themselves but they paid for those misses. Once significantly behind in a game then Bodo can have a few problems and they couldn't break down a resolute Tromso defence in the second half. The good news is that Molde are currently defending like schoolboys so Glimt should be able to create numerous chances today. The bad news is they’ll probably concede quite a few themselves due to absences. The defensive duo of Moe (susp) & Edvardsen (sick) are both definitely out, whilst young midfielder Mathias Norman is also suspended. Bodo usually keep a very similar team so it could very much upset their applecart having to make at least three changes. One thing that's unlikely to change is their attacking trio of Jevtovic, Olsen & Azemi. Bodo have won 2 of their last 4 away games and posses strong counter attacking threat.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Right now, Molde are in such a terrible phase that whoever they play against is almost an automatic bet! The hosts are on a -1 asian handicap here which is waaaaaaaaaayyy too short considering their recent form. However, sooner or later they must surely turn things around. There’s enough quality in this squad, especially after new additions in midfield and attack which should mean a return to winning ways at some point. Obviously, the mood within the camp is a bit fragile though and the fans aren’t best pleased. I expect to see Molde approach this game really positively. They’ll attempt to beat Bodo Glimt in a shootout, and that’s exactly what I envisage. I don't believe either team is capable of defending very well here and this should be a match full of chances. I’m sure a lot will be missed but ultimately quite a few should also be converted. The goal line is 3.25 and this is pretty high. But I’m willing to back the over in this instance, simply due to high confidence. Even if exactly three goals are scored then this would only be a half loss. This isn’t a great value bet, but the most important thing in betting is actually winning. I think Molde will take the three points in a likely shootout, but Bodo are also worth backing on the nose for a small stake @ 6.50. This is too big considering the amount of matches Molde have lost recently.

Prediction: 3-2
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 3.25 goals @ 1.92 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80)
Recommended bet 0.25 unit: Bodo Glimt win @ 6.50 (small stake)

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