Tippeligaen – Rosenborg v Sogndal Preview (14/8/16)

RBK-SOG

Rosenborg preview

RBK won their game in hand on Thursday night 2-0 at Viking to extend their lead at the top of the table to nine points. They have effectively already secured the title and are streets ahead of the other teams in this league. For this match, winger Yann de Lanlay is injured but they don’t have any other fresh concerns. Rosenborg have had a hectic schedule recently though and could potentially rotate the squad around a bit here. They have been playing at weekends followed by midweek on a constant basis of late. The current champions boast a 100% home record, winning all 9/9 contests in front of their own fans, conceding just five goals in the process. Even if they aren't at full freshness or focus then they are still highly capable of doing a job on any team in this league.

Sogndal preview

Sogndal’s amazing 11 game unbeaten run came to an end last week when they lost 1-2 at home to Viking. They were outplayed in that encounter and deserved to lose. I have gradually been noticing some signs of Sogndal’s form going downhill a little bit, so I wasn’t overly shocked to see them lose. Lets look at the facts, they are a promoted side with a fairly limited squad. Coach Eirik Bakke has actually done a very good job with them so far. But they were hit hard by the loss of midfielder Babacar Sarr who transferred to Molde. He was one of their best players this season and his presence in the middle of the park has been missed. For the most part, Bakke has kept with a similar XI and a key cornerstone of his tactics is hard work, winning the ball back frequently and player putting a lot of mileage in their legs.

Conclusion & betting analysis

There are some negatives here for RBK, especially their hectic schedule of games and just a three day period to recover from. But they should still have too much for Sogndal. The visitors will park the bus and try to restrict RBK as much as possible but over the course of the 90 mins I struggle to see how they resist. I don’t think Sogndal will have much of an attacking threat in this game. They aren’t a naturally offensive team anyway and Rosenborg will monopolise the ball dominating possession. I would say the most likely score lines are 2-0 or 3-0. The debate is whether to back Rosenborg on a -1.5 handicap. For shorter price backers, the -1.25 handicap is maybe an option but really the bookies are forcing you into an all or nothing bet. The all being if RBK can win by two clear goals or more. I will probably regret not backing the hosts on this handicap but I think there’s a danger of 1-0. Sooner or later these matches will catch up with RBK and Sogndal might be able to keep things tight. I’ll leave this one alone but I was strongly tempted to back the -1.5 handicap.

Prediction: 2-0
Recommended bet: None

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