Tippeligaen – Tromso v Aalesund Preview (5/8/16)

TIL-AKF

Tromso preview

It’s touch and go whether or not captain Simen Wangberg will be fit enough for today’s game. The centre back was suspended last week but he’s also been dealing with an injury. Tromso looked solid enough without him at Bodo Glimt, so maybe his absence won’t be felt as much. Striker, Sofiene Moussa broke his had a couple of weeks ago but he might play soon with some extra protection around his injury. Again, it’s hard to know if he'll suit up or not, my guess is he'll have a place on the bench. Tromso obtained a big 3-0 win away to rivals Bodo Glimt last week. They rode their luck initially but then produced a really good tactical performance to keep their opponents at bay. For some weird reason, TIL have been better away from home this year. They’ve failed to win any of their last four games at Alfheim Stadion and only tasted victory twice here all year! This is really unusual and at some stage will surely change, but right now they seem to be slightly cursed in front of their own fans.

Aalesund preview

The visitors claimed a much needed win last week when they beat Lillestrom 2-0. That was only their second victory since the end of April, such has been their poor form. The last time they played on the road they suffered a 0-6 humiliation at Brann, so the win was a good bounceback from the players. AFK travel here with a full strength squad and should be more confident than they have been in recent weeks. But their away record is the worst in the whole league, having lost 7/9 on the road this term! Aalesund have conceded a whopping 21 goals on their travels and this is a backline which never looks very secure. Just because they beat Lillestrom doesn't really mean anything. LSK have been awful since the summer break and we still have to remember that AFK are one of the poorest sides in the division.

Conclusion & Betting analysis

Aalesund beat Tromso 6-0 earlier in the season so the northern outfit will be after some revenge here. They may well get it, but @ 1.75 I’m not really interested in backing them. I rate Tromso as the better team but for some reason they are making a hash of things at home this year and it might be starting to mentally affect the players. The bet I like for the game is over 3 goals. This might seem like an extreme line for a Tromso match when you consider the general reputation of TIL. But it’s worth noting that 7 of the last 8 Tromso games have all contained at least 3 goals! Since the summer break it’s been very noticeable that they've been much more attack minded and only in one fixture did they decide to be negative (at Godset which is understandable). Even if the home defence play well then they’re more than capable of scoring a few themselves on the awful Aalesund defence which usually concedes loads of goals. I think both teams will fancy their chances in this match and it’s set up for an open affair in which each side ‘goes for it’ I think there’ll be at least three goals scored so I’m happy to take an over 3 line in this instance. I’m expecting a home win to occur but I feel Tromso are just a little bit too short and risky to back.

Prediction: 3-2
Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @ 2.04 (minimum odds acceptable 1.85)

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