France Ligue 1 – Guingamp v Montpellier Preview (10/9/16)

EAG-MHSC

Guingamp preview

  • Joint top of the table and unbeaten under new coach Antoine Kombouare.
  • Look quite pro-active and dangerous going forwards with their positive approach.
  • Still a number of players out, but captain and key striker Jimmy Briand looks set to return.
  • Strong at home, always well supported by a passionate crowd.

Montpellier preview

  • Inconsistent start with a win, draw and loss to their name.
  • Squad in good condition  health wise with only old centre back Hilton rated doubtful.
  • Excellent recent record here, won on 4 of their last 5 visits.

Conclusion

I have to say Guingamp have looked quite good under Antoine Kombouare. They are unbeaten and already faced teams like Monaco and Marseille. I’ve always rated the ex PSG & Valenciennes coach, He’s a great tactician and usually employs a positive mindset. He’s also not afraid to use youngsters and make strong selection choices. The mood is good in Guingamp at the moment and they will eye this game as another chance to get three points. Montpellier meanwhile, are difficult to predict as always under Frederic Hantz. I sense there’s a slight flat feeling to them but performances haven't been too bad. They seem to enjoy facing Guingamp and haven’t lost against them in a long time. I think we’ll get a pleasant game on the eye worth watching,. Neither team is particularly known for being defensive. My feeling is that Guingamp can end their recent hoodoo against MHSC, but I’m not entirely sure.

Prediction: 2-1

Betting analysis

The hosts on a -0.25 handicap could be a decent bet @ around the 2.05 mark. At the moment I rate them as the better team, although on paper there’s not an awful lot between them. Due to Montpellier’s great record in this fixture I will swerve betting on Guingamp but I do think they’ll win. Instead, my preferred pick is over 2.25 goals. I don’t think this’ll be an insanely high scoring match, but there should be enough goals to cover an over, or as a worst case scenario a couple of strikes leading to a half loss. I could play safer and just back over 2, but in this instance I’ll be aggressive and take over 2.25 at a bigger price.

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 2.04 (minimum odds acceptable 1.85)