France Ligue 1 – Lorient v Nancy Preview (10/9/16)

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Lorient preview

  • Winless, pointless and have all sorts of problems in all areas of the field.
  • Injuries & suspensions affecting them everywhere, plus key midfielder Didier Ndong was sold to Sunderland.
  • Defence the biggest concern and have now connected eight straight goals without reply.
  • Stade Moustoir pitch is now grass, not artificial.

Nancy preview

  • Another team who have yet to pick up any points. Nancy haven’t even scored a goal yet!
  • Nancy had chances, but can’t convert. Already missed two penalties this season!
  • No injuries or suspensions, but new signings Alou Diarra and Issiar Dia not included due to lack of fitness.

Conclusion

This is a battle between the bottom two teams in Ligue 1, both of whom have had a difficult start to the campaign. Lorient started the season by going 2-0 up on Caen but since then all sorts of issues have developed. They've conceded eight goals without reply, picked up numerous red cards and absolutely nothing has gone right. Defensive issues have always been a problem with this team and they won't be helped by the suspension of Zargo Toure, injury to Lindsay Rose, whilst defensive midfielder Francois Belugou is rated doubtful. Nancy haven’t actually looked as bad, but missed key chances at crucial times. The adaption to Ligue 1 level has been difficult for them. This fixture is just what both teams needed and both will surely fancy their chances of three points. I think this’ll be an open game of football and quite an end to end type contest. Inevitably, when both need a win so desperately it often ends a draw. I could see something like a 2-2 outcome.

Prediction: 2-2

Betting analysis

I have no idea who will win this game and no outcome would surprise me. The bookies don’t really know either and price up Lorient between a -0.25 and DNB handicap. There’s maybe a slight bit of value with the hosts, but who could trust them right now? The bet I like is over 2.25 goals. Lorient matches are usually really open, containing a lot of chances. There’s a chance Nancy might try and tighten up a bit but I’m fairly sure they will target this match as a good chance to pick up points. They’ll fancy their chances against a poor and makeshift Lorient backline. Over 2.25 is priced @ 1.89 and this is more than acceptable. It’s a really strong over candidate as long as both teams don’t keep missing chances!

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.89 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)