France Ligue 2 – Ajaccio v Red Star Preview (9/9/16)

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Ajaccio preview

  • Generally played alright this season and have seven points to their name, possibly deserving more.
  • Renowned for their strong home record on their Corsican base, and won both fixtures here so far this season.
  • Reinforced the right hand side of defence and midfield with two new additions who could both feature here.
  • Centre back Joris Sainati is looking like the only main casualty tonight. He’s out long term with a serious injury.

Red Star preview

  • Suffered a troubled start to the season, winless in five matches and only scored a solitary goal.
  • Already been involved in three 0-0 draws, which have been their only source of any points.
  • Difficult transfer window has seen a lot of players both arrive and leave the club, leading to a lot of unsettlement.
  • Usually a better away team than at home, likely to set themselves up hard to beat.

Conclusion

Red Star really haven't enjoyed their start to the season. They look to be lacking in all areas of the field, and the fact they managed to scrape three 0-0 draws has been more luck than judgement at times. In a similar way to Bourg-en-Bresse, they look to have encountered a strong early case of ‘second season syndrome’ The Parisian outfit had such a turbulent transfer window it might take them a long time to settle down. Ajaccio meanwhile, have looked quite good and are unsurprisingly 100% at home so far. They’ll always be strong at Le Stade Francois Coty and I personally give them the edge tonight. Lack of goals can sometimes be their big issue, but it might only take a single strike to beat Red Star such is how toothless the visitors have looked so far. I don’t expect this to be a classic by any means, but something like a 1-0 or 2-0 Ajaccio win could be on the cards.

Prediction: 1-0

Betting analysis

Ajaccio are on a -0.25 handicap @ 1.83 and I think this is worth backing. They are a good home side and rarely get beaten in front of their own fans. Red Star haven't looked very impressive in this campaign yet and until they settle down more it could be good chance to bet against them. The visitors can be a decent road team and will bunker down, hoping to stay in the game. I have to admit 0-0 is a potential outcome, but with some draw cover it wouldn't be a complete disaster should the match end all square. The goal line is set at 2.0 and this looks pretty fair. I would say this match has a good chance of ending under 2.5 due to the fact that neither are usually that strong in front of goal.

Recommended bet 1 unit: Ajaccio -0.25 @ 1.83 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)

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