Tippeligaen – Start v Aalesund Preview (9/9/16)

START--AFK

Start preview

  • Rock bottom and are 12 points away from the nearest safe position with only 8 games left.
  • They haven’t won a Tippeligaen match for over a year, a run which now stretches to a massive 37 games!
  • Have shown some spirit in recent weeks and are desperate to end this record breaking run. Realistically, only pride left to play for though.
  • Left back Rolf Vikstol & midfielder Andreas Hollingen the only injuries and ruled out. Both players would definitely be in the starting XI if available.

Aalesund preview

  • Second bottom of the table and struggled for victories all year. Huge chance for a victory which they can’t miss out on.
  • Midfielder Fredrik Carlsen set to be their only absentee due to suspension.
  • Poor away record (2-1-8), although did play well to beat Tromso away 2-1 a few weeks ago.

Conclusion

This is a match between bottom and second bottom of the table. There is a significant difference between the two teams though. Start are basically playing for pride, whilst Aalesund are fighting for their lives in what is a very tight relegation scrap. Every point matters with five sides still in the mixer, but Aalesund will surely regard this as their best chance of three points. The visitors aren’t playing particularly well and not too many recent displays spring to mind in which they were impressive. AFK are at least showing some fight though and managed to equalise late against Sarpsborg prior to the international break. I’m sure both sides will fancy their chances and I’d be surprised if this isn't an open contest. Start just want to entertain their fans and have no pressure on their shoulders, whilst Aalesund simply have to attack facing the worst Tippeligaen side. In terms of a result nothing would surprise me, but I think both teams will score. Maybe the final outcome could be a high scoring 2-2 draw.

Prediction: 2-2

Betting analysis

Despite having not won a Tippeligaen match for well over a year in 37 attempts, Start are shockingly a -0.25 favourite! Considering that statistic, many people would regard Aalesund +0.25 @ 1.88 as a gift from the betting gods! However, I don’t think it’s as simple as that. Quite a few teams have come unstuck facing Start recently, including the likes of Sogndal & Stromsgodset. The hosts haven’t been playing ‘that badly’ although often find a way to fuck up a game or simply just don’t know how to win. There’s no way in a million years anyone with half a brain could back Start here, you would seriously have to have a screw loose! Aalesund are poor on the road and there’s no guarantee they’ll win so I’m happy to leave this market alone. I will however get involved in the over/under market. The current line on offer is 2.75 and I think this will end over. A lot of recent Start home games have been really open and 4 of the last 5 ended with at least three goals in them. Likewise, the last five AFK games have all ended over as well. I just don’t see Aalesund coming here with a defensive mindset, even if they had a lead to protect. The only way they'd go into their shell would probably be in the last 10 minutes if they were leading by one goal. Both should be going for it here so I’m happy to pull the trigger on this over.

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.75 goals @ 1.87 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)

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