Tippeligaen – Tromso v Sogndal Preview (11/9/16)

TIL-SOG

Tromso preview

The northern outfit have lost 3 of their last 4 games but I sense they aren’t in a bad place right now. The standard of performance by TIL has been quite good since the summer break and they probably should've picked up more points. Tromso haven't been as defensively strong in the last few weeks and that can be attributed to constant injuries and suspensions, along with a change of mindset. It’s been noticeable how attacking the side have been, and even pushed the boat out against Rosenborg last time out. They lost 1-3 thanks to a late goal but realistically deserved to cover the +1.75 asian handicap they were set at. Tromso haven’t been as strong at home this year, possessing the third worst record in the league. However, Alfheim Stadion is traditionally a fortress and they looked much better during the 2-1 win against Viking last time out here.

Sogndal preview

For a promoted team, Sogndal have performed pretty well this season. They’ve only lost six games and sit fairly comfortably in midtable. Eirik Bakke’s men had a brilliant unbeaten run of nearly a dozen matches not so long ago, although this hot period has cooled off. Sogndal have now only won 1 of their last 7 games and recently let slip winning positions with not long left. They failed to see off Start and Stabaek (both 1-1) and I just sense the spark from this team has gone a bit. They should ultimately survive, and with a bit to spare, but there’s a chance their campaign could fizzle out. It looks like the visitors have few injury concerns ahead of this trip to Tromso and their XI is usually quite consistent. Sogndal are draw masters and 10 of their 22 matches have ended all square, which is an unusually high amount for a Tippeligaen side.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Tromso have a little bit of a security blanket ahead of the relegation zone for now, but they need to keep picking up points to ease their fears. A home match against Sogndal should yield a good chance of victory. The visitors are hard to beat and often draw games, but if Tromso play to their best then they’ll get the job done. Nobody likes playing up north and if they can perform like they did facing Viking I personally see a home win. Sogndal have to be respected, but their squad is quite limited. Tromso are available on a -0.25 handicap around the 1.91 mark and this looks generous enough. The goal line is set at 2.5 and I also considered the overs here. But the traditional nature of both teams is to be more conservative, so I’ll just stick with the Tromso pick.

Prediction: 1-0
Recommended bet 1 unit: Tromso -0.25 @ 1.91 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)