Tippeligaen – Valerenga v Aalesund Preview (25/9/16)

vif-afkValerenga preview

The Oslo outfit are unbeaten in nine league games but suffered major disappointment in the midweek NM Cup, losing against Godset 2-0. The way that ‘Enga had been playing recently they’d have had high hopes of winning that competition, or at least progressing to the semi finals. Now their sole focus is on survival and right now they have a six point cushion to third bottom. Valerenga shouldn’t go down but they still need a few more points to guarantee their Tippeligaen status before ex Celtic boss Ronny Deila takes over as manager in 2017. They might be nine games unbeaten but there have been some warning signs recently that their good form might end. Draws facing Godset and Haugesund were obtained when they were second best, and they’ve now followed that up with the aforementioned cup defeat.

Aalesund preview

Back to back thumping wins have moved Aalesund out of the relegation zone. 4-1 and 4-2 victories against Start & Godset respectively seem to have ignited their change towards survival. This will be a more challenging game for AFK but it’s been really noticeable how much better their offense has looked of late. It’s a well known fact that their backline isn’t good enough to get them points. Therefore, they are going to have to rely on their attackers to get the job done. The good news is that it’s scored eight goals in two games and brimming with confidence. Aalesund have lost a massive 8 out of 12 times on the road this season but have won 2 of their last 3, so in this instance we have to forget about the overall statistics. Captain and right back/ midfielder Bjorn Helge Riise is suspended for this clash.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Valerenga are favourites on a -1 asian handicap here which is simply too short. They are unbeaten in nine games but signs are that this good form could be coming to an end. Coupled with Aalesund’s recent resurgence, then I think it’d be dangerous and no real value backing the hosts on a -1 line. I’m not saying that Aalesund will definitely get a result, but sometimes it’s best to play safe. Instead, I’m going to side with the overs. Valerenga have been involved in some really annoying games that have ended 1-1 recently. All of them should have ended over, but somehow remained all squad. However, it’s clear with the nature of their play that an open style of football is to be expected. It’s also clear that the visitors are going to be relying on their offense to get the job done for the remainder of this season. Over 3 goals looks like a good pick in this instance. At worst, a push is highly probably, but I think this match could erupt into an explosion of goals.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: Over 3 goals @ 1.89