Tippeligaen – Valerenga v Stromsgodset Preview (10/9/16)

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Valerenga preview

  • In great form. Unbeaten in 7 games, winning 5 of those contests.
  • Their only starter currently injured is midfielder Vajebah Sakor.
  • Back to full strength at the back following a double suspension.

Stromsgodset preview

  • Winless in four games and in a poor run of form.
  • At full strength in defence and midfield but have problems offensively.
  • Only scored 3 goals in 6 matches and all of their unavailable players are in attacking areas.
  • This includes ley striker Marcus Pedersen who is suspended and winger Oyvind Storflor who misses out for personal reasons.

Conclusion

So this is a derby of southern Norway between a couple of teams who have a great rivalry. Historically, this fixture is full of goals and earlier in the season Godset came from 0-2 down to beat Valerenga 3-2. However, the boot may well be on a different foot now. The form of both sides heading into this match couldnt be more contrasting. ‘Enga have been playing some great football, unbeaten in seven games, most of which they've dominated. The visitors meanwhile, have seemed so flat during a horrible winless streak. Godset have been such a free scoring team for ages but it seems they lack offensive quality all of a sudden, especially with Marcus Pedersen suspended again. Tokmac Nguyen is back following a long injury lay off but might not be fit enough to start,. I just don't see anything in the Godset offense which will strike much fear into anyone right now. Anything can happen in a derby match but the logical pick is for Valerenga to win again.

Prediction: 2-1

Betting analysis

Normally I’d back the overs blind in this fixture. The intensity is usually so great between these teams that it leads to a ridiculously open match containing match chances. But with Godset’s offensive struggles I don’t think it'd be wise to back the overs on this occasion. They are a very popular public pick but sometimes it’s best to go with the obvious. Valerenga look like having a great chance of winning this match. Until Godset actually start playing better and improving their results, it’s a bit of a no brainer to bet against them. I will personally opt to side with a -0.25 handicap, just for some extra security. But I’m sure many will prefer the juicy -0.5 price close to evens. The aforementioned overs line is 2.75 and I actually think it will still cover. But I can’t rely on the visitors to score a goal so I have to leave it alone.

Recommended bet 1 unit: Valerenga -0.25 @ 1.76 (minimum odds acceptable 1.65)