France Ligue 1 – Montpellier v Caen Preview (15/10/16)

mhsc-smcMontpellier preview

  • Winless since the opening day of the season after blowing a 3-1 lead against Dijon just before the international break.
  • Centre back duo of Daniel Congre & Vitorino Hilton are both unavailable. It’s possible that new signing Cedric Mongongu could make his debut.
  • Defensive midfielder William Remy is injured and won’t feature either.
  • Montpellier have only failed to score in one match so far this season, but clean sheets have been a rarity. Conceding five against Lyon and three against Dijon is worrying.
  • There seems an overall flat feel to Montpellier this year. It’s difficult to describe but they seem to have lost an edge and are stuck in a rut.

Caen preview

  • A 1-0 home win against Toulouse last time out came as a relief, ending a poor sequence of results.
  • Caen very much seem to be hit or miss this season, with 3 wins, 4 losses and just 1 draw so far.
  • The visitors have no major injuries to deal with at the moment, or any suspensions.
  • The Normandy outfit will be buoyed by the fact that they beat Montpellier in both meetings last season.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • This is a match between what I class as two naturally attacking teams, however neither has been consistent this season.
  • Caen have a poor away record this term, losing 3 out of 4 and scoring just once on the road. But I feel like they have a decent chance tonight.
  • Montpellier are favourites in between a -0.5 and -0.25 handicap line, which looks relatively fair. But considering they haven't won since the opening day of the season then I won’t be rushing to back them.
  • If both teams play in their natural style then this should be an over 2.5 fixture. There are one or two doubtful elements however, not least Caen’s lower scoring matches on the road this season.
  • Despite this, over 2.25 can be backed close to the 1.75 mark, and I just think this is worth a shot. There’s enough attacking ability in each side and Caen should be able to score tonight facing a weakened defence.
  • I could see either side winning by something like a 2-1 scoreline and even a 2-2 draw can't be ruled out.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.74