France Ligue 1 – Nice v Lorient Preview (2/10/16)

nice-fclNice preview

  • Top of the table after winning 5 of their 7 games. Les Aiglons are the only remaining unbeaten side in Ligue 1.
  • Things are going well for them domestically but in the Europa League it’s been a struggle. They suffered their second defeat on Thursday night, getting battered 5-2 by Russian side Krasnodar.
  • Some rotation was made in midweek but playing twice a week for the last three weeks has put some strain on the squad.
  • New star striker Mario Balotelli has been in great form but is doubtful for this match because of illness, the same can be said for defender/midfielder Mathieu Bodmer.

Lorient preview

  • Lost their first four games of the season but have improved recently, winning 2 of their last 3.
  • Lorient have been unusually goal-shy this term, scoring just twice since the opening match. For some reason there has been more of an emphasis put on defensive play.
  • Not usually known for their away abilities under the management of Sylvain Ripoll. FCL have lost all three road games this season.
  • No new injuries to worry about. A few guys are on the sidelines including new playmaker Sylvain Marveaux. But he, along with the rest of them haven’t featured much yet this campaign.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Nice have been really good this season but could be flat after a midweek trip to Russia in the Europa League.
  • A lot of recent Lorient matches have been tight and low scoring, something similar could occur here.
  • Ultimately, Lorient usually find a way of losing road matches but seem a little tougher to beat recently and could ‘hang in’ there for a while.
  • Nice are understandably odds-on to win this match around the 1.80 mark. They just aren’t for me here though because I’m unsure if they will be able to produce their best football.
  • The over/under line is surprisingly set between 2.5 and 2.75. This seems high and looks more based on reputation.
  • I am not usually an under backer, but taking under 2.75 close to the 1.90 mark seems far too generous in my opinion.
  • In French football, a 2.75 goal line should never be offering such generosity apart from when big teams like PSG & Lyon are involved.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Under 2.75 goals @ 1.88