France Ligue 1 – Rennes v Metz Preview (30/10/16)

ren-metz

Rennes preview

  • Christian Gourcuff’s men have had a good week, beating fellow Brittany rivals Nantes & Rennes in the Ligue and cup respectively. A win here would move them into the top give.
  • Les Rouges et Noir have been very strong at home this season, winning 4 out of 5 games with only Bordeaux managing to stop them picking up all three points.
  • The hosts do however have some injuries to worry about. At the back, key centre back Mexer will miss out, as will the midfield duo Gelson Fernandes & Yoann Gourcuff.
  • This is a match they are fully expected to win so I think we’ll see Rennes highly positive right from the off.

Metz preview

  • Four losses in five games has put Metz on the back foot and they are starting to move down the table after a good start to the campaign.
  • Perhaps they are starting to look out of their depth and are now playing at the level which was expected of them this year. They needed penalties to beat off third division side Paris FC in the midweek cup which isn’t a particularly good sign.
  • Squad condition is favourable with only midfielder Yann Jouffre ruled out through injury. Nobody else of significance will miss the match.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Metz seem in a bit of a funk and the promotion bubble which they had at the start of the season appears to have vanished.
  • Rennes are very strong at home and it'd be a surprise if they failed to win this match. The only real question is how comfortable the margin of victory will be.
  • Metz have shown a willingness to attack so it’s possible they might score here. But defensively they’ve looked a shambles recently and Rennes should be able to fill their boots.
  • I am prepared to back Rennes on a -1 Asian handicap. At very worst they should be able to win the game, but realistically this match will end up as an easy home win.
  • Over 2.5 tempted me as well, but the risk of a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline puts me off and I prefer just to stick with the obvious handicap selection.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Rennes -1 (asian) @ 2.01