France Ligue 1 – St Etienne v Dijon Preview (16/10/16)

asse-dfcoSt Etienne preview

  • Defeat to Lyon just before the international break ended a stretch of six games without a loss and Saint are currently situated in midtable.
  • The international break probably came at a good time for Les Verts who have been suffering with a lot of injuries this season
  • This situation is more favourable now, but the midfield duo of Lemoine & Selnaes both miss out, as do the the attacking duo Hamouma & Beric.
  • However, a number of guys do return which will boost them a lot. St Etienne have won 3 out of 4 at home this season and are tough to play against at this stadium.

Dijon preview

  • Some spirited performance recently, such as coming from 1-3 down to draw against Montpellier prove that Les Rouges deserve their place at Ligue 1 level.
  • They are quite a pro-active team and don’t seem to have changed their philosophy from Ligue 2 level which is to ‘have a go’ in most matches.
  • Dijon have lost all three of their away matches so far, only scoring one goal in the process but one of those games was in Paris
  • Third choice left back Quentin Bernard set to start due to the injuries of Arnaud Bouka Moutou & Vincent Rufli.
  • The midfield duo of Jordan Marie & Marvin Martin are both injured too. Martin has hardly featured all year though. Dijon are at full strength in attack.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • St Etienne are favourites around the 1.70 and this is totally fair. They are the better team with higher class players and are usually strong at home.
  • Les Verts should be able to collect all three points today, but Dijon are a side willing to attack which could make them dangerous.
  • I think Sainte will cover a -0.75 handicap but there’s no guarantee they will win the game by a comfortable margin, so I prefer to swerve this line.
  • Instead, my preferred bet is over 2.25 goals. Dijon don’t have a great defence and I’d be surprised if they manage to keep it tight here. At the same time, they have some good attackers who might find the net.
  • In total, 5 of the last 6 Dijon games have all ended over 2.5 and I sense this will be quite an open contest. At worst, at least two goals should be scored so this will be my selection.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.92