France Ligue 2 – Clermont v Le Havre Preview (14/10/16)

clerm-hacClermont preview

  • Lost just 1 of their last 8 games but failed to win any of their last four.
  • Only scored 9 goals in 10 games and just 4 in 5 at home, which is much lower compared to last season.
  • Have been relying more on a solid defence this campaign but will have to do without two regular starters at the back, Cedric Avinel & Cyriaque Rivieran who are both suspended. Avinel especially is a massive player for them and will be greatly missed.
  • First choice keeper Mehdi Jeanin & winger Ludovic Genest are injured but everyone else is available.

Le Havre preview

  • Bob Bradley has moved to Swansea City and Oswald Tanchot is now in charge. He was Bradley’s assistant manager so the internal changeover should be without much drama and quite a smooth transition.
  • This is Tanchot’s first job managing a side at this level. He is reportedly popular with the players and is likely to employ positive tactics, continuing the traditional Le Havre reputation of attack minded football.
  • The new coach must do without three suspended players and one injury. They are hit hardest at the back where Chebake, Cambon and captain Steven Fortes all miss out.
  • Striker Ghislain Gimbert is banned but right winger Zinedine Ferhat returns following injury.
  • HAC have only lost once on the road this season and are one of the big favourites for promotion. Back to back wins ensure they enter the contest in good form.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • The bookies can’t split either side and are equally priced on a DNB handicap. This looks about fair, Le Havre are the better team but playing on the road is never easy.
  • Considering this is Tanchot’s first game in charge of Le Havre, there will always be an element of doubt surrounding them. I don’t personally expect many things to change, but let’s wait and see.
  • Both sides are missing key players at the back. So some unusual looking defences will be on show here. They key will be which side copes best short handed.
  • Considering all these defensive absences, over 2.25 goals has to be worth a bet @ around the 1.95 mark. Logic suggests that each attack force will have more opportunities in this game compared to normal.
  • Both Cedric Avinel & Steven Fortes are key leaders for their respective sides and I don't think either defence will be as effective tonight. At very worst there should be two goals, but this over bet has a good chance of landing fully.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.95