France Ligue 2 – Orleans v Tours Preview (14/10/16)

uso-tfcOrleans preview

  • A run of 4 defeats in their last 5 games had seen the newly promoted outfit slip back inside the relegation zone.
  • After a fairly solid start to the season at the back, Orleans have leaked 11 goals in this same period, which is poor for a team that is considered more defensive minded.
  • Injuries and suspensions added up for them in recent matches and the international break probably came at a good time, giving a number of players sufficient time to heal.
  • Their best two players, Joel Sami (CB) & Karim Ziani (AM) are both expected to be available which is a major boost.
  • Their only remaining injuries are to longer term attackers like Delcos & Houla, who probably wouldn't be starting games anyway. The same can be said for striker Romain Armand who is suspended.

Tours preview

  • Consecutive defeats in all of their last five matches has left TFC rock bottom of the table.
  • During this period they have nearly conceded an average of three goals per game, which is absolutely massive in a low scoring league like this one!
  • Right back Johann Gradit is suspended, whilst centre back Cyriaque Louvion is injured. In the middle, Mohamed Maouche is another suspension.
  • Coach Fabien Mercadal was expected to be sacked by highly unpredictable and eccentric president Jean Marc Ettori. However, he gave him a ‘vote of confidence’ during the international break and has encouraged everyone to come together as a team.
  • Mercadal is nevertheless in a very precarious position and desperately needs a good result and performance here.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Big derby game between two local rivals. Not much distance separates these two cities which are located on the river Loire in central France.
  • Both are in desperate need of points, although Tours’ plight has been even more worrying of late.
  • Its for this reason I would favour Orleans more, but not enough to tempt me backing the hosts on a -0.25 handicap.
  • These odds look quite fair, especially when you consider this is a derby encounter in which anything is possible. The higher chance of a red card either way could make this game a lottery too.
  • Both teams have conceded a lot of goals recently, so an over 2 goal line close to the 1.80 mark looks quite generous statistically, and on paper.
  • However, I would say it’s highly likely both teams will have worked on defensive organisation during the international break. Surely this would seem fairly logical.
  • Thar possible fact along with the potential of a tight and cagey derby makes me inclined to swerve betting the over in this match. However, based on recent performances there is still a decent likelihood of the game ending with at least three goals or more.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None