France Ligue 2 – Tours v Valenciennes Preview (21/10/16)

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tfc-va

Tours preview

  • TFC remain rock bottom of the table after winning just once all season.
  • They did at least managd to end their terrible five game losing streak by drawing at local rivals Orleans 0-0 last week.
  • It was the first time since the opening day of the season that they kept a clean sheet. Fabian Mercadal’s men have conceded a whopping 21 goals so far, which is much more than any other side in this division.
  • The defensive duo, Gradit & Louvion remain injured. Midfielder Maouche returns from suspension and veteran striker Toifilou Maoulida could make his debut after signing on a free recently.

Valenciennes preview

  • The team from northern France have only lost two games all season and are suddenly in good form.
  • Successive victories, 4-2 against Strasbourg & 3-1 facing Niort has seen their offense spring into life and they look dangerous going forwards.
  • Confidence is high and the squad is also in good condition with virtually no injuries or suspensions to deal with.
  • Valenciennes have been a good away team in the last couple of years due to their counter attacking strength so a road trip is something they’ll always fancy.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Tours at least showed some improvements last week against Orleans, but it was a slightly unusual match due to its local derby nature.
  • I’m not as sure they can be as solid at home when the expectation is to attack more, plus they are playing a better opponent this week.
  • The obvious bet is Valenciennes DNB @ around the 1.85 mark. This looks juicy and statistically would have a low chance of losing.
  • However, I have a general rule not to back away sides in France unless the handicap is extremely generous or unless you're backing one of the top teams.
  • So I’ll refuse the visitors but I will take over 2 goals. One swallow doesn’t make a summer and I don’t think Tours can keep successive clean sheets.
  • Valenciennes are attacking well and although Tours have struggled to hit the back of the net, chances are at least being created.
  • There should be enough opportunities for a minimum of two goals in this match so I’m happy to take this over.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.75