Tippeligaen – Molde v Stabaek Preview (30/10/16)

mfk-vik

Molde preview

  • Defeat against rivals Brann last week (1-2) has ended their medal hopes. Only 1 win in 6 games has stalled their progress at a crucial time.
  • With the exception of the 2-0 win at Tromso, their attack force has looked really poor recently. Chances aren’t really being created enough, and those that are generated simply aren’t finished with efficiency.
  • Molde are now destined to finish in midtable and there will certainly be some question marks surrounding their motivation, especially as their recent poor results could be quite demoralising.
  • Centre back Vegard Forren & midfielder Babacar Sarr are both suspended. The makeup of the squad and XI will, as always be very unpredictable.

Stabaek preview

  • Two defeats in their last three games has suddenly put Stabaek in massive trouble. As things stand they are set to be automatically relegated.
  • They do have Start to play at home next week, so will eye that as a potential three points. Anything other than victory here could see them officially relegated if their other rivals towards the bottom all won.
  • Winger Muhamed Keita is suspended but everyone else should be available.
  • Stabaek suffered heartbreak last week, conceding two late goals to lose against Sarpsborg. They have a superb away record since manager Toni Ordinas took over though, unbeaten in seven road games.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Molde have been lacklustre for a while and with a potential lack of focus I struggle to see why they are priced so short to win here around the 1.65 mark.
  • Stabaek have much more at stake, which of course will add pressure. But they are the team in desperate need of the points and we could see extra fight and spirit from the visitors.
  • I am willing to risk backing Stabaek on a +0.75 handicap. I just feel these odds are far too generous. Molde are nothing special and the visitors are unbeaten on the road under Toni Ordinas.
  • I would not be at all surprised if Stabaek won this match and for those who like a real big value bet, then they are worth a nibble @ 4/1. I will also have a small 0.25 stake on this outcome.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Stabaek +0.75 @ 2.12

Recommended bet: 0.25 unit: Stabaek win @ 5.50