Tippeligaen – Odd v Sogndal Preview (30/10/16)

odd-sog

Odd preview

  • Crucial back to back 2-1 wins against Haugesund & Rosenborg has put Odd firmly back on track in their pursuit of a medal. Beating RBK at the Lerkendal last week was a massive shock.
  • Odd have leaned on defence to pick up these victories. They have looked really solid at the back and fought hard to win a lot of balls. Finally, their clinicality upfront has shown through as well.
  • Key midfielder Jone Samuelsen is ruled out for the rest of the season but he’s been playing hurt for a long time and he’s probably done them a favour by having surgery.
  • Young talented winger Zekhnini should return from his injury and offer them extra creativity out wide which has been missing recently.

Sogndal preview

  • A late defeat at home to Stromsgodset (0-1) last week ended an unbeaten four game stretch. Sogndal are safe from relegation though and are likely to finish up in the comfort of midtable.
  • They are a very hardworking and resilient team, well organised and disciplined. That is the key to their success and if in the mood could really frustrate Odd here.
  • The big question is if they will be in the mood or not. It’s been a long hard season and considering they are effectively safe, I’m not sure if the players will want to put in a really tough stint again.
  • Squad condition is good with no major injuries or suspensions. Their natural DNA is to sit back and park the bus in fixtures like this so it’ll be interesting to see if coach Eirik Bakke sticks to those methods.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Sogndal are the biggest under team in the Tippeligaen, with 18 of their 28 games containing two goals or less. They’ve drawn five games 0-0 this year and nearly added a sixth stalemate last week too.
  • With that in mind, under 2.75 at an odds-against price is extremely tempting. However, if Sogndal decide to open up a bit then it could be dangerous, so I’ll leave alone.
  • Odd need the win to secure a medal spot. I expect them to get it but they might not win easily. They are a -1 asian handicap favourite and this line gives little appeal either.
  • I don’t think this will be a classic by any means. Odd just need to get the job done, whilst Sogndal are a very professional team who won’t roll over easily.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None