Tippeligaen – Stabaek v Sarpsborg Preview (22/10/16)

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Stabaek preview

  • Conceding a late equaliser against Valerenga last week was far from ideal. It means Stabaek enter this round second from bottom which is an automatic relegation spot.
  • The hosts have played well since Toni Ordinas took over midway through the season, only losing 3 out of 13 games. However, the poor position they were in before he arrives continues to hinder them.
  • Squad condition is good with midfielder Luc Kassi set to return from injury. Fullback Daniel Granli remains doubtful.
  • Stabaek have only scored 11 home goals all season in 13 games which is a terrible return. For some reason they simply haven’t been as effective at Nadderud Stadion this year.

Sarpsborg preview

  • In similar fashion, Sarpsborg also conceded a fairly late equaliser last week at home to Rosenborg. A 2-2 draw against the champions is still a good result but they needed victory.
  • The visitors have had an excellent season but just 1 win in 6 games has severely hindered their chances of finishing in a medal spot. They are now four points adrift of third placed Odd and it might be asking too much to surpass them now.
  • Left wing back Joachim Thomassen & versatile midfielder Tor Hovda are both suspended. They have no reported major injuries.
  • Sarpsborg have been a solid away side this year, often hard to beat following a sticky start to the campaign.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • What a massive match this is for Stabaek. Time is running out to save themselves and they must fight hard for every single point. They are a -0.25 favourite here around the 1.90 mark, which looks too short.
  • Stabaek are better than their league position might suggest but Sarpsborg are still the better outfit and remain with some medal hopes if they can win.
  • The poor record that Stabaek have at home makes them unbackable here at such a poor price. However, I am not ruling out them winning so I don’t want to back Sarpsborg either.
  • It’s one of those games where both teams really need a win, but inevitably a draw often occurs. I think it’ll be a tight match and not particularly open. Stabaek struggle to score goals at home and Sarpsborg can defend well.
  • My feeling is for a lower scoring draw and I don’t personally see a betting edge in any market. I would rather leave this game alone.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None