The northern outfit have been all or nothing recently. TIL have won four and lost four of their last eight games. For a large majority of the season, their form on the road was better than at home. But in recent times normality has resumed. Tromso have won their last three matches at Alfheim Stadion which is a traditional fortress. The hosts have had all sorts of injury and suspension problems recently but finally nobody is banned and their casualty list isn’t as vast as it once was. Performance wise, Tromso have been playing some great football ever since the summer break. They are only three points clear of the relegation zone but should be confident of avoiding the drop if they keep playing well.
The visitors had a great four match winning streak not so long ago, but have followed that up with a poor streak and are now languishing in midtable again. A really strong finish could perhaps see them threaten a medal spot but Molde don’t really look like doing it right now. Their whole season has been a bit of a flop and they can only really look forward to the next campaign now. The defensive duo of Vegard Forren and Joona Toivio are both ruled out injured until the end of the season, but the rest of the squad should be available for selection. There’s just no real drive about Molde right now and they feel really flat. From mid summer onwards it’s all been about transition for this club and I’m not sure if their focus is fully there on the present.
Conclusion & betting analysis
Molde are always one of the teams in this league who often get priced up based on reputation. For the majority of the last 2-3 years it’s been a realistic assumption that they are a major power side, but the dynamics have changed. Molde are still reasonable enough, but absolutely nothing special anymore. There is no way Tromso should be an underdog in this match and I have no hesitation in backing them DNB. At this stadium and location, it’s such a difficult place for anyone to visit. It has been profitable since mid season betting against Molde in most of their matches, especially on the road. I just feel this is yet another situation in which Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men are vastly overrated once again, so let’s take advantage!
Recommended bet 1 unit: Tromso DNB @ 2.04