France Ligue 1 – Caen v Guingamp Preview (26/11/16)

Caen preview

  • The Normandie outfit suffered another defeat last weekend away at OM (0-1) in which they failed to register a shot on target and only fired in three total shots all game.
  • In total, Caen have lost 7 of their last 10 games although wins against Nice and Toulouse do prove that they can have the odd good day against decent opposition.
  • Left back Emmanuel Imorou is suspended whilst fellow fullback Mouhamadou Dabo is injured. Everyone else is available apart from attacker Jeff Louis who is out long term and isn’t very important anyway.
  • Caen have only scored 10 goals all season and definitely lacked firepower this term. The return of key playmaker Julien Feret is a big boost though. He’s missed the last three games due to injury and could be in line to start today.

Guingamp preview

  • The Brittany side are unbeaten in 5 games thanks to a late equaliser against Bordeaux last week. They’ve been one of the big overachievers in the Ligue so far, still maintaining sixth spot.
  • Right back Jordan Ikoko is injured, along with midfielder Etienne Didot. Both have been playing quite well this season so might be missed. Nobody else is missing apart from long term absences.
  • Guingamp have scored 11 times on the road this season, which is one of the highest tallies of any team. They are arguably more dangerous on their travels due to the counter attacking threat they possess.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Caen are favourites on a -0.25 handicap around the 2.05 mark. This looks about fair. Home advantage is worth something but they aren't in great form so it makes sense they are a fairly juicy price.
  • Caen have been surprisingly negative this season. I’m not sure if this is intentional or because they have missed someone like Anthony Delort who transferred away from the club. They are lacking the attacking threat they posssed in recent years.
  • At some point the offense could explode into life. If I was confident they could offer more in front of goal then I’d back the overs here because Guingamp away games tend to be more open and end to end.
  • With a goal line set between 2.0 and 2.25 there’s certainly a temptation to back the overs. However, there’s just too many doubts that Caen will continue to struggle and produce lower scoring matches.
  • It feels like the sort of match which someone will win 2-1. I’m not sure which side will prevail and reluctantly I’m going to have to leave this match alone from a betting point of view. It could well be worth watching due to its in-running potential though.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet: None