France Ligue 1 – Dijon v Monaco Preview (29/11/16)

Dijon preview

  • Suffered a bruising 2-3 loss against Bordeaux on Saturday night. Dijon led 2-1 until late in the game but conceded a couple of goals in stoppage time to fall to a heartbreaking defeat. Les Rouges have only won 1 of their last 7 games and conceding late goals is starting to hurt them.
  • Some injuries will affect them negatively here. The defensive duo of Chafik & Varrault are both ruled out and in midfield they have issues too. Veteran Florent Balmont remains injured, and he’s joined by Lees Melou, whilst Mehdi Abeid is suspended. Les Rouges are going to lack solidity in this area of the field.
  • It might be that Dijon have to rely on their offensive strength to stay competitive. The coach has been risking less recently in an effort to tighten up, but his options are limited here facing such a good team. Dijon have taken the attack to the likes of Lyon, Rennes & Guingamp, so could be a threat in front of goal.

Monaco preview

  • Leonardo Jardim’s men look like genuine challengers to PSG this season and they’ve scored a massive 43 goals in 14 games so far! This is a ridiculous average for any league, let alone in French Ligue 1 which is historically low scoring.
  • Monaco are playing extremely well at the moment and their swift progression in the Champions League also demonstrates that. Confidence is clearly very high at the moment and they are fearsome opposition. The demolition of Marseille (4-0) at the weekend was done in ruthless fashion.
  • Jardim has admitted he’ll rotate the squad here. So some higher profile players will be left on the bench. However, guys like Lemar and Moutinho who sat out at the weekend are expected to come into the XI. Monaco have great squad depth and a supposed ‘weaker lineup’ is still of high quality.
  • Monaco have been a little more vulnerable on the road this year. They were given a fright by bottom side Lorient in their previous road trip too. But their offensive strength is capable of firing them to victory against anyone at the moment.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • It’s difficult to see how Dijon stay close to Monaco here. The visitors are playing irresistible football at the moment and the home defence is unlikely to be able to keep them out much.
  • Dijon’s only chance is to score goals themselves, which is certainly possible. They possess enough threat going forwards but ultimately I think they’ll be outscored. Monaco are a short price but taking them on a -1 asian handicap makes sense in my opinion.
  • Monaco haven’t just been winning games this year, they've been smashing opposition. Les Monegasques are routinely covering handicaps with ease which makes backing them on this -1 line even more appealing.
  • I think over 2.75 is also worth taking. I think both teams find the back of the net and this has the makings of a really high scoring contest.
  • A whopping 12 out of 14 Monaco games have all contained over 2.5 goals this year which pretty much says it all. Even if Dijon try and park the bus it will probably be a fruitless task. Monaco are playing so well right now.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bets both 1 unit: Monaco -1 (asian ) @ 2.16 & Over 2.75 goals @ 1.86