France Ligue 1 – Lyon v PSG Preview (27/11/16)

Lyon preview

  • Three straight wins in the Ligue has got Lyon back on track following a difficult period. Victory against Zagreb (1-0) in the midweek CL, combined with Sevilla’s loss also still gives them a chance of progressing to the last 16 of that competition.
  • OL have encountered a number of injury problems this season, but the situation seems to have settled down. Their only official absences here are right back Christophe Jallet and centre back Emmanuel Mamama, neither of whom can be considered important.
  • Bruno Genesio’s men have suffered a couple of surprising home defeats this season, but their record at Parc OL is generally very good since it opened at the turn of the year. They beat PSG here last season and there should be a big crowd roaring them on.

PSG preview

  • The visitors should be buoyed by their 2-2 draw at Arsenal in the midweek CL, which puts them favourites to top the group.
  • Domestically, their form is improving too, although some performances have been questionable. I am still not convinced by Unai Emery and I sense it might take a while for his full philosophies to bed in at the club.
  • PSG will miss key playmaker Angel Di Maria to injury which is a massive blow. Someone like him could make a huge difference in a fixture like this one. Adrien Rabiot & Javier Pastore both miss out too, as does left back Layvin Kurzawa.
  • PSG have already lost twice away from home this season, both against fearless opponents Toulouse sand Monaco. This is perhaps a similar type of fixture so there are certainly some question marks surrounding the champions.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • It looks like Lyon have just found some form at the right time. This should enable them to approach the encounter in a confident mood and perhaps the memories of last season's great victory against PSG will give them a boost too.
  • The visitors are a short price favourite, only around the 2.08 mark. This immediately looks way too low against a team like Lyon away from home. PSG aren’t the side they were 12 months ago and seem to have regressed under Unai Emery so far.
  • Of course, the defending champions still possess some great individuals who can turn it on at any time, although losing Di Maria to injury could be vital.
  • Lyon +0.5 is an extremely tempting price. I feel there’s some value here and I don’t see the hosts losing. However, they’ve shown a few deficiencies this season which worries me a little bit.
  • In recent years this fixture has been high scoring and I anticipate an over 2.5 game. However, the odds are very skinny around the 1.75 mark and not really worth backing in this ligue.
  • PSG aren’t as free scoring under Emery and I could see him employing an organised game plan which counteracts OL’s strong offensive play.
  • Overall, I’m going to leave the match alone. I wouldn’t want to put anyone off backing Lyon +0.5 or the overs though. This should be a decent game to watch.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet: None