France Ligue 1 – Marseille v Caen Preview (20/11/16)

Marseille preview

  • Still looking for their first win under new coach Rudi Garcia. OM have drawn two matches 0-0 under his stewardship, and then lost 1-3 at Montpellier last time out.
  • Still very early days of the Garcia era and it might take some time for OM to find an identity. Right now, they are a very inconsistent side capable of anything.
  • They will have to do without key left back Henri Bedimo who’s injured. Vital midfielder Lassana Diarra is suspended, whilst attacker Clinton N’Jie is injured.
  • Marseille were shockingly bad at home last season but so far they are unbeaten at the Velodrome this campaign, winning three and drawing three, conceding just one goal in the process.

Caen preview

  • The visitors shocked everyone by beating Nice just before the international break (1-0). Prior to that they had lost 6 out of 8 matches and struggled badly.
  • Their away form is very poor this season, losing 5 out of 6 contests and conceding 11 goals in the process. The 0-0 obtained at Bordeaux appears to be an anomaly right now.
  • Key playmaker Julien Feret is still injured and left back Emmanuel Imorou is suspended. Everyone else of significance is available for selection though.
  • They have won on their last two visits to the Velodrome and clearly enjoy travelling to the south coast to a venue which holds no fear.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • The home team has failed to win any of the last 11 matches in H2H past meetings. This sort of fixture might suit Caen if they can counter attack well, but so far this season they've been strangely subdued in a lot of matches.
  • Caen employed a defensive gameplan against Nice last time out and I could see them doing the same again, looking to frustrate OM.
  • The hosts might have to be patient but in Rudi Garcia they have a pretty good tactical coach and should be improved from an organisational and disciplined point of view.
  • OM are a short priced 1.75 favourite and this is too short on an unreliable team. The over/under line is set at 2.5 as well, which seems quite fair.
  • Overall, it seems like a dangerous match to bet in. I have a feeling it could be quite low key but nothing too much would surprise me, it all depends what Caen’s approach is.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None