France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Marseille Preview (26/11/16)

Monaco preview

  • The hosts are playing well at the moment. They’ve maintained their second place in the table, are scoring plenty of goals and have also ensured Champions League progression thanks to an excellent 2-1 win against Spurs in midweek.
  • Leonardo Jardim’s side are the highest scoring team in Ligue 1 by quite a large margin. They’ve fired in 39 goals at a whopping average of 3 per game! A massive 11 of their 13 fixtures have ended with over 2.5 goals in them, which is simply huge in a league like this one.
  • There’s the potential for some squad rotation but this rarely bothers them. Monaco have a vast squad and loads of good quality youngsters who can all make an impact. Left back Benjamin Mendy won’t play against his former club due to injury, but nobody else is officially ruled out.
  • Monaco are defending a 100% home record after obtaining 6/6 victories at Le Stade Louis II. They have a 22:6 goal differential here.

Marseille preview

  • Rudi Garcia won for the first time as Marseille boss last week thanks to a late 1-0 win against Caen. OM have been solid, if not spectacular under his stewardship so far.
  • The south coast giants have kept 3 out of 4 clean sheets under Garcia. The one exception was during the horrible 3-1 loss at Montpellier. They managed to grind out a 0-0 draw at PSG a few weeks ago and I suspect they will employ negative tactics again here.
  • OM are without left back Henri Bedimo, which also limits them offensively because he’s good at going forwards contributing towards the attack.
  • Marseille were very good away from home last season but have yet to taste victory on the road this term.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • In this south coast derby match it’s no surprise to see Monaco as favourites around the 1.65 mark. They are the better team right now and on paper they outclass Marseille in pretty much every area.
  • A lot of recent Monaco wins have been by big margins. If they get ahead in games then watch out for them racking up the score. They simply haven't been in the mood to rest on their laurels this season and enjoy putting opposition to the sword!
  • Over 2.5 is priced odds-on here which isn’t a surprise either. A lot of Monaco games have contained at least three goals. One thing that worries me here though is that OM might park the bus and be very difficult to penetrate.
  • I was impressed how solid they were at PSG where they managed to hold the champions to a 0-0 draw. If Monaco could get ahead here then this game will open up, but big question is how long can OM preserve their clean sheet for?
  • My best advice is to watch this game and see what happens. If the game opens up then it will likely be a very good chance for an in-running over bet. However, pre game the worry of Marseille parking the bus makes this game hard to bet on.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None