France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Nancy Preview (5/11/16)

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Monaco preview

  • The south coast side obtained a big 3-0 midweek win in the champions league against CSKA Moscow, a result which goes a long way towards securing qualification for the knockout phase.
  • Monaco have been scoring a lot of goals recently and to have Falcao back on the scoresheet is a big boost as well. The Columbian looked really sharp in midweek, bagging a brace and linking up really well with Valerie Germain.
  • Centre back Kamil Glik is suspended for this match but the squad is mostly in a very healthy condition with few absentees. With Monaco likely to dominate possession, he’s unlikely to be missed much anyway.

Nancy preview

  • The Lorraine outfit won for just the second time last week when they overcame Caen 2-0 at home. Their only other victory this term was against Lorient, who are also inside the relegation zone.
  • Nevertheless, Nancy have at least improved recently and should approach this game with a bit more confidence. They did draw 1-1 at Bordeaux in their previous away game.
  • An improvement in offense has aided their cause of late, but I expect Pablo Correa to employ fairly negative tactics today. They will sit deep and make it difficult for Monaco to break them down. Striker Anthony Koura is injured but everyone else of significance should be available.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • There is quite a big gulf in class between the two sides. Monaco should really have too much for Nancy here. But the visitors haven’t lost by more than a goal in any contest since August.
  • Perhaps Correa’s men can keep it close and maybe they’ll fancy their chances of scoring against a Monaco defence which has been quite leaky recently.
  • A massive 9 out of 11 Monaco games have ended over 2.5 this season. God knows how last week’s draw at St Etienne (1-1) didn’t go over either.
  • There’s a danger that Nancy parking the bus might lead to a lower goal expectancy but I think over 2.5 is worth backing again around the even money mark.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.02