France Ligue 1 – Montpellier v Nancy Preview (26/11/16)

Montpellier preview

  • The south coast side have been picking up a few decent results recently. They’ve only lost 1 of their last 6 games and there’s been a noticeable slight improvement regarding their performances.
  • Defensive issues continue to plague the team though. Frederic Hentz’s men have only kept one clean sheet all season, which came as far back as the opening day!
  • First choice keeper Geoffrey Jourdren is injured, but Laurent Pionnier is a more than able deputy. The midfield duo of Sylla & Remy remain out, and this weakens their spine and stability. Neither have now played in over a month.
  • Montpellier have added a couple of youngsters to the squad in attacking areas due to the injury of Souleymane Camara.

Nancy preview

  • The Lorraine side have now won 2 of their last 3 games thanks to a tight 1-0 victory against Dijon last week. Nancy weren’t convincing and on another day could easily have lost but this team is now starting to pick up better results.
  • Their away form hasn’t been great, scoring just 3 goals in 6 road games. Hitting the back of the net has been a big overall issue for the team this season and they are the lowest scoring side in Ligue 1.
  • A couple of defenders are missing for this game - Chretien & Cabaco who would both be potential starters. With a big derby match coming up against Metz in just a few days, some squad rotation might also take place.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Montpellier have won their last two home games and they are the rightful favourites here. However, around the 1.90 mark they represent little value considering Frederic Hantz’s men draw too many games.
  • Nancy aren’t a particularly enterprising side and I’d expect them to offer little here. Their main objective will be to keep things tight and frustrate Montpellier as much as possible.
  • I’m usually very tempted to back the overs in most of Montpellier’s games. They play in an extremely open fashion but it does take two to tango and I’m not sure Nancy will come here to dance.
  • The goal line is set at a firm 2.25 and this isn’t juicy enough to tempt me in. With a high risk of Nancy parking the bus, it simply isn’t worth it.
  • Overall, I expect Montpellier to edge a close victory. Their lack of keeping clean sheets would suggest that something like a 2-1 scoreline is likely. However, due to the lack of value on both the -0.5 and over 2.25 line then I will reluctantly have to refrain from betting.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None