France Ligue 1 – Toulouse v Montpellier Preview (30/11/16)

Toulouse preview

  • TFC are winless in five games, their worst period of results since Pascal Dupraz took charge of the club. Back to back home defeats against Lyon and Metz mean they’ll be trying to avoid a hat-trick of losses in front of their own fans.
  • Toulouse had a lot of momentum at the start of the season, but maybe their fire has gone out a little. Key defender Christophe Julien is suspended here and midfielder Alexis Blin rated doubtful.
  • Centre back Issa Diop remains out too, along with playmaker Oscar Trejo. The squad could certainly be in healthier condition, although at least they’ve had a five day period of rest considering their most recent fixture was on Friday night.

Montpellier preview

  • The visitors have only lost 1 of their last 7 games and are in reasonably good form. They were frustrated by Nancy at the weekend, held to a 0-0 at home. This was one of the few games in which they failed to score this season, but also a rare instance when MHSC kept a clean sheet.
  • This isn’t particularly the norm. Most Montpellier matches of late have been quite exciting, end to end contests. They've been willing to ‘have a go’ in nearly every fixture. Coach Frederic Hantz isn’t afraid to take the game to the opposition away from home either.
  • Playmaker Stephane Sessegnon is suspended and striker Souleymane Camara injured. This should give a chance for the often forgotten Kevin Berigaud to start in attack.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • This is a battle between two teams seemingly in contrasting form. Toulouse have struggled of late whilst Montpellier are picking up results.
  • The fact that TFC are a -0.25 home favourite is pretty fair. If you forget about their previous two home games Pascal Dupraz has a superb record at this stadium since he took charge of the club.
  • The extra day of rest could be important for Toulouse as well and they should be pretty fresh. Montpellier should be relatively well rested too so I think both sides will have plenty of bring to the table.
  • I think this will be quite an open contest and over 2.25 is my preferred pick. Quite a lot of TFC’s home games have ended over, and the same can be said for Montpellier all round.
  • The fact that both teams come into the game on the back of an under fixture probably inflates this price, which is fine by me. I expect both teams to score and someone to either win 2-1 or a 2-2 draw.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.95