France Ligue 2 – Tours v Auxerre Preview (25/11/16)

Tours preview

  • Rock bottom of the table and have lost 8 of their last 10 games. TFC have the worst defensive record in Ligue 2 and have conceded a massive 28 times so far, at an average of nearly 2 goals per game!
  • This might easily be the last chance for coach Fabien Mercadal. He’s been under pressure for a while now. Tours were unlucky to lose with the last kick at Sochaux last Friday but this really is a must win contest otherwise Mercadal could be fired.
  • Tours do at least carry a decent offensive strength. They look set to have no absences in this area of the field either. A couple of defenders are doubtful, but this is almost irrelevant considering how poor they’ve been at the back this year.

Auxerre preview

  • AJA are second bottom and have desperately struggled this season. New coach Cedric Daury has to some extent steadied the ship slightly, but they are still performing poorly.
  • Recent draws against Amiens & Lens were extremely lucky. Had their opponent's taken their chances then they’d have lost both contests. But picking up some points will at least improve morale.
  • Auxerre are the lowest scoring team in Ligue 2, netting just 9 times in 15 games. This is something which needs to improve and if they struggle against the worst defence in the ligue then they really do have problems.
  • Experienced centre back Remi Fournier is injured along with the midfield duo of Kilic & Vincent. All of these players would potentially be starters, but because the team is playing poorly then it possibly isn’t much of a factor.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Here we have a battle between bottom and second bottom of the table. Both sides are slightly adrift in the lower reaches right now, but a victory for either would get them back in touch with the rest of the division.
  • If I had any faith in Tours I would back them here. They are a juicy price on a -0.25 handicap and have actually been playing better than their results might suggest.
  • Auxerre just seem really poor right now and have fluked some draws the last couple of weeks. I think Touts will win the game but there’s an old saying ‘bad things happen when you bet on bad teams’ and TFC definitely fall into that category. They find ways to cock up games.
  • One pick I do like is over 2 goals. In my personal experience, games like this between two desperate teams are often open because each fancy their chances. This could be a surprisingly end to end encounter.
  • There is a slight risk involved here because Auxerre do struggle to hit the back of the net. But in this sort of situation, no matter what league I will usually always opt to back the overs because the nature of the situation means each side is often more positive.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.77