France Ligue 2 – Valenciennes v GFC Ajaccio Preview (29/11/16)

Valenciennes preview

  • A 2-0 win at Orleans on Friday night was their first in five games and came as a welcome relief. It was also the first clean sheet they obtained in seven games, although perhaps they were fortunate to achieve this.
  • The VA defence has been far from secure this season, although this isn’t due to lack of good players. The style they play is pretty attacking and the coach has been willing to take more risks, thus leaving gaps at the back.
  • Due to a high percentage of draws last year, it's understandable the coach has been willing to gamble more in order to pick up three points.
  • The hosts will be without veteran playmaker Sebastien Roudet due to suspension. He might have been rested out anyway for this midweek round. He’ll be missed a bit but they have nobody else of significance ruled out.

GFC Ajaccio preview

  • The Corsicans have lost 4 of their last 6 games and have been rather all or nothing recently. They are stuck in the lower part of midtable and could do with picking up some more points soon.
  • Lack of goals is really starting to hinder them. They couldn't beat ten man Sochaux on Friday night despite totally dominating the second half. GFC simply struggle to put their chances away. If you take away their 3-0 win at Tours, they've only scored 11 goals in their other 15 fixtures.
  • Injuries aren’t helping their cause either. Nobody in the final third has been in great form for GFCA this season, but the visitors are missing Cisse, Boujedra, Lemoine & Romain from offensive areas.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • If you take away the aforementioned 3-0 win at Tours, GFC have offered very little on the road since the early stages of the season. They are being outplayed away from home and lack of chances being created is a major concern.
  • Valenciennes can be a wildcard team capable of anything. Their offense has great potential but you never known when a blown coverage at the back will cost them. The hosts nevertheless come into the fixture with more momentum after their win on Friday.
  • I’m really surprised that VA are only slight favourites on a DNB handicap. This looks far too generous. I rate them as the better team right now and with home advantage it’s a no brainer bet.
  • GFCA simply aren’t playing well enough and I don’t fancy them in this long away trip. I suspect this could be an over match as well, VA don’t keep many clean sheets. However, GFC’s lack of goals is a real offputting fact so I’ll just stick with the home handicap.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Valenciennes DNB @ 1.85