- LSK know that only a victory would technically guarantee survival. But with Bodo away at Rosenborg and with them having a better goal difference than Stabaek, realistically a draw or even a very close loss could be enough to avoid the drop.
- An unbeaten run of four games has set Lillestrom up for a survival which didn't look possible a few weeks ago. The new coach has made them much more physical and robust.
- Experienced centre back Frode Kippe is suspended and that's a blow because someone like him would relish this sort of match. Lillestrom know they need commitment today.
- Molde have endured a fairly poor campaign but a convincing 3-0 victory against Stabaek last week has put their destiny back in their own hands. A win here would be enough to grab fourth spot, and a Europa League place should Rosenborg win the Norwegian cup.
- Last week was the best they looked for a long time and in many ways there’s no pressure on their shoulders. The season is considered a disappointment for Molde and with no medal spot to fight for anymore maybe the shackles are off.
- Squad condition is quite good too with few injuries to worry about. I don’t think we’ll see a lot of changes to the XI that won so easily last week.
Conclusion & betting analysis
- This will be a nervous match for Lillestrom. They know that even a close defeat wouldn’t be a disaster for them here. Quite how they’ll play I’m not sure, but I have a feeling they could be on the back foot too much and negative.
- Lillestrom have been improved under their new coach but this is still a fragile team and Molde are certainly the better outfit.
- Unlike the hosts, we know that Mold will probably go ‘all out’ for the win to finish fourth. I expect the visitors to control the game and be much the more threatening.
- Scorelines elsewhere might force Lillestrom to react. But with such a high price placed on the draw, I think it’d be a surprise if we saw the hosts outright win this game.
- Molde can be grabbed on a DNB handicap @ 1.88 and this is big enough for me to strike. I just think the situation will suit them more on the day and the extra pressure might get to Lillestrom a bit.
Recommended bet 1 unit: Molde DNB @ 1.88