Tippeligaen – Tromso v Odd Preview (6/11/16)

til-odd

Tromso preview

  • TIL at least managed to avoid losing another game last week by obtaining a 2-2 draw at Sarpsborg. It was their best performance for a while too.
  • Only a victory outright would ensure they avoid any threat of relegation. However, a point would at least ensure they survived the loom of automatic relegation.
  • With Stabaek facing Start, I think it’s safe to assume that Tromso need a point to finish ahead of them. Winger Ingebrigtsen is suspended.

Odd preview

  • The visitors could finish second above Brann if they bettered their rivals’ result, or obtained a big victory which far surpassed Brann’s goal difference.
  • Odd snapped a poor period by winning three games in a row which has secured them a medal and European position. They’d like to finish with silver but they can be pleased with how they responded to a poor run of results.
  • Midfielder Jone Samuelsen is out and crucial young winger Rafik Zekhnini is rated highly doubtful for the contest.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • This is a really tricky match to predict because there’s plenty at stake for both teams.
  • Tromso are -0.25 favourites which I don’t really understand. They are out of form and Odd have the better squad. However, Tromso is a difficult location to visit and the hosts are fighting for their lives.
  • Neither team is particularly known for it’s great offensive strength and I could see a tight encounter. A draw wouldn’t be the worst result for TIL, considering who their opponents face.
  • I think under 2.75 goals is a good bet here. Each side can defend well when required and I just don’t see things opening up too much. I’d be surprised if Odd lost but I’m willing to swerve the visitors on a +0.25 line and stick with the under.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Under 2.75 goals @ 1.99