France Ligue 1 – Caen v Metz Preview (18/12/16)

Caen preview

  • Due to their match getting postponed last week they've had a nice 10 day rest to recharge.
  • However, Caen haven't been in great form only winning 1 of their last 8 games. They blew a 3-1 lead in their previous home game against 10 man Dijon.
  • They have huge problems playing a complete 90 minutes and often have numerous mental lapses, lacking concentration. This has constantly been an issue, although Caen have at least won half of their home games this year.
  • Squad condition fairly good although first choice keeper Remy Vercoutre is still ruled out injured. This is a blow because backup Reulet has proven unreliable. Left back Manu Imorou is still missing and hasn't featured since mid October.

Metz preview

  • Have suffered back to back away losses at Nancy and Bastia respectively. In truth they performed pretty badly in both fixtures and an improvement is needed here.
  • Key playmakers Erding, Jouffre and Lejeune remain injured. Metz have a few promising youngsters who have performed well this season though. Guys like Gauthier Hein and Ismaila Sarr have shown plenty of promise.
  • Les Grenats have the seventh best away record in Ligue 1 and have shown an ability to cause problems to teams in certain fixtures. They've managed to pick up three road wins which is respectable. However, 4 of their last 5 away games have resulted in defeat.

Conclusion & betting analysis 

  • This match was due to be played on Saturday evening but got postponed because of fog. The forecast isn't great today either and visibility could be poor at the stadium.
  • Caen are 1.85 favourites here which looks a bit short. When you consider Bastia were much bigger to beat Metz last week, this doesn't really make sense.
  • I do think that Caen will win but they can't be trusted. That recent Dijon match really concerns me and they should've comfortably beaten them but blew it.
  • Metz are either awful or dangerous and they are perhaps due another good performance. They will believe they can get a result here and the pressure is all on Caen.
  • It wouldn't surprise me at all if this match ended over 2.5. The over line is set at 2.25 around the 1.80 mark which is a tempter but I'm going to reject it.
  • Both sides have conceded a lot of goals recently so there's a chance either could focus more on defensive duties here. If it develops into a cagey match in which both are nervous then the overs would be in danger. So I'm going to leave the game alone.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet: None