France Ligue 1 – Bordeaux v Lille Preview (3/12/16)

Bordeaux preview

  • Les Girondins are unbeaten in seven matches, although five of those contests have ended as draws. It’s an inability to win more games which is hindering Jocelyn Gourvennec’s side.
  • Squad condition is very good with the only absences long term injuries or to insignificant players. A little bit of rotation took place in midweek and I expect Bordeaux to line up with their strongest XI today.
  • The hosts have been fairly good in front of their own fans this season, only losing once. They need to convert more draws into wins, and a lack of recent clean sheets is perhaps one of the reasons why they haven’t been doing that.

Lille preview

  • LOSC obtained a morale boosting and important 4-2 win against Caen on Tuesday night. The victory wasn’t enough to move them out of the relegation zone but they’ll be feeling a lot better about themselves.
  • Caretaker manager Patrice Collot is unbeaten during his two game stint following the sacking of Frederic Antonetti. The players clearly responded on Tuesday night and confidence should be much higher.
  • Key striker Eder is injured, although they still scored three times without him on the field on Tuesday. Defensive midfielder Rio Mavuba is still injured, whilst winger Ryan Mendes is injured yet again.
  • Lille have a horrible 0-2-5 away record, although perhaps this can be ignored somewhat considering the recent change of coach.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Patrice Collot led his side to a 0-0 draw in his only previous away match in charge. But that was against a horrible Nantes outfit and it was understandable he didn’t want to lose his first game as Lille boss.
  • However, they came much more out of their shell on Tuesday night and I expect them to maintain this sort of approach today. Bordeaux rarely keep clean sheets and LOSC have some good counter attacking potential with the likes of Ronnie Lopes & Nicolas de Preville.
  • Bordeaux draw so many games that an all square outcome certainly can’t be ruled out here. I think 1-1 or 2-2 are the most likely scorelines. The hosts are -0.25 favourites, but backing them on that line gives a major half loss risk.
  • The pick I like is over 2 goals. Now I have to admit there is a relatively high chance of an exact push here. As aforementioned, the 1-1 scoreline is certainly possible,. However, I don’t think this bet will lose. With a 2.0 goal line, I’m willing to strike.
  • Unless Lille park the bus then I think this game will be more open than expected. It won’t be a mega high scoring encounter but by playing the percentages then hopefully someone can sneak a 2-1 win and deliver a win for this pick.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.90