France Ligue 1 – Bordeaux v Nice Preview (21/12/16)

Bordeaux preview

  • Les Girondins were unbeaten in seven matches not so long ago. However, they’ve now lost three games in a row. They head into this game on the back of successive 0-4 defeats.
  • It seems like Jocelyn Gourvennec’s men desperately need the winter break to come quickly. They have been punished by some clinical sides recently and Nice are sadly a similar sort of opponent.,
  • The 0-4 defeat at Bordeaux on Saturday was harsh on them. Had Bordeaux taken their chances then it might've been a different game. Having to play the last 55 mins with just 1o men wasn’t ideal though and physical freshness could be an issue here.
  • To counteract that, the coach might have to start some lesser known players. Some of this is by default anyway due to their terrible injury situation. Bordeaux have 9 players injured and 2 suspended.

Nice preview

  • Whatever happens tonight, Nice will be top of the table during the winter break. A victory here would ensure they have at least a four point cushion.
  • New coach Lucien Favre has done a tremendous job so far and they are remarkably still up there with the pace. There’s certainly an element of ‘Leicester’ about them and we all have to realistically consider Les Aiglons as a major contender now.
  • Nice have only lost one game all season which was away against Caen. They are a strong all round until with strong defensive and attacking abilities.
  • The visitors have injury problems in defence. Three of their four regular starters will all miss out tonight - Dante, Ricardo & Dalbert. The two fullbacks also missed the Dijon match at the weekend and they looked vulnerable. Without Dante who has been excellent this season, Bordeaux could take advantage.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • I personally see this match being an open contest. Bordeaux simply can’t defend at the moment and I don’t think there’s enough time to rectify this before the winter break.
  • Both sides are missing players from defence. Of course, that doesn’t automatically mean more goals will be scored but logically you’d think more chances will be created. Nice have some good quality attackers and Bordeaux have some decent technical options.
  • Therefore, over 2.25 goals is my pick for the game. The price is around the 1.80 mark which is generous enough. Nice matches often have too many undeserved high goal lines but in this instance I think there’s some value.
  • I’m surprised Bordeaux are slight favourites on a DNB line. Nice should be at least a -0.25 handicap tonight so there is definitely a spot of value on the visitors. However, without Dante and a weakened backline I’m not willing to risk them.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.80