France Ligue 1 – Dijon v Marseille Preview (9/12/16)

Dijon preview

  • Les Rouges might be struggling for victories (just 3 all season) but they have been fighting very hard for points recently. Draws facing Monaco & Caen were all obtained thanks to late goals.
  • Last week’s effort to come from 1-3 down to 3-3 at Caen was especially impressive. They had to play the whole of the second half with 10 men and actually could've even won the contest.
  • Dijon have always been pretty strong at home and their record of just one defeat here this season is no surprise. It’s not an easy place to visit - just ask Monaco who could only draw 1-1 here.
  • Left back Arnaud Bouka Moutou is suspended. Dijon don’t have anyone else ruled out apart from the old midfield duo of Marvin Martin & Florent Balmont, who have both been absent for a long time now.

Marseille preview

  • OM have definitely looked improved following their awful 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Monaco. A 0-0 at St Etienne in a match they dominated, followed by a comfortable 3-0 win against Nancy must have boosted everyone.
  • Since Rudi Garcia took over, the Mediterranean giants have actually kept 5 out of 7 clean sheets. Part of this is down to defensive improvement, but also because they’ve controlled possession better in a lot of games.
  • No significant changes in the squad compared to last week. Key players who are still out include left back Henri Bedimo, midfielder Lass Diarra and playmaker Remy Cabella.
  • Marseille were excellent away from home last year but they’ve yet to win on the road this season. In total OM have actually only won 1 of their last 15 away matches in Ligue 1.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Dijon have been very plucky at home facing big teams this season. Results against Lyon & Monaco stand out, along with some other good performances. They have good all round strength and have especially shown an ability to score goals recently.
  • I think this will be a good game to watch and should be fairly end to end. Marseille have shown some promise going forwards and it looked like their offense finally clicked against Nancy last Sunday.
  • It wouldn’t surprise me if either side won this game, or if indeed a weird draw something like 2-2 or even 3-3 occurred. It has to be considered that Marseille rarely win on the road so for them to be favourites in between a DNB and -0.25 handicap doesn’t really represent much value.
  • The overs interest me but there isn’t great line value. If you want to take the all or nothing 2.5 line then the price is around 1.85.
  • In this league you are usually better off opting for extra security, so I will take over 2.25 at a reduced price. The odds in this instance aren’t great @1.63, but long term this can pay off. I wouldn’t recommend taking anything below 1.60 on this line.

Prediction: 2-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.63

Minimum odds acceptable: 1.60