France Ligue 1 – Dijon v Toulouse Preview (21/12/16)

Dijon preview

  • Les Rouges’ winless streak now stretches to eight games and puts them back inside the relegation zone. This is a difficult period for Olivier Dall'Oglio’s men but they remain competitive.
  • We have to consider the fact they’ve faced some difficult opponents recently. The likes of OM, Monaco & Nice have been on their fixture card of late and Dijon have been credible in most games. I feel like their performances have deserved better results.
  • Veteran defender Cedric Varrault is suspended tonight. This might not be a bad thing because two games in a week could’ve been tricky for him physically, especially facing fast strikers.
  • Playmaker Frederic Sammaritano also misses out for DFCO, who have only lost once at home since the opening day of the season. They have always been strong in front of their own fans.

Toulouse preview

  • Results haven’t been too bad recently, albeit with unconvincing performances. They could easily have lost all of their last six games but managed to grab a couple of home wins during this period.
  • Despite being outplayed by struggling Nancy in front of their own fans on Saturday, a late Christophe Julien equaliser earned them a point. Julien will now attempt to score against his old club. He’s so big and dangerous in the air from attacking set pieces.
  • Toulouse are affected by injuries. At the back Moubandje & Diop are both ruled out and the latest casualty is winger Jimmy Durmaz. A number of other players will possibly be playing hurt and carrying niggling injuries. The squad isn’t particularly healthy right now.
  • TFC have only won one away game this season, which was way back in September against Lille. They’ve never been that great on the road since Pascal Dupraz took charge in March.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Dijon are set as slight favourites, in between a DNB and -0.25 handicap line. They haven’t won for eight games but I think there’s a good chance they can get three points tonight.
  • In terms of actual performances, they’ve actually been much the better of the two teams recently. Toulouse have fluked a couple of results facing poor opponents, whereas Dijon haven't always gotten what they deserve.
  • Les Rouges are hard to beat at home and have put in some decent displays at Le Stade Gaston Gerard. Toulouse are injury ravaged a bit and I feel this is a good matchup for them.
  • Backing Dijon DNB @ around the 1.75 is a pick I’m willing to take. I don’t think they’ll lose tonight and the line is generous. Toulouse just haven’t done enough recently  that suggests to me they’ll get the job done.
  • I could see this match ending over 2.5 and the goal line of 2.0 is slightly tempting as well. However, a number of TFC away games tend to be low scoring so I’ll leave that market alone.

Prediction: 2-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Dijon DNB @ 1.77