France Ligue 1 – Lyon v Angers Preview (21/12/16)

Lyon preview

  • OL surprised everyone by beating Monaco 3-1 away from home on Sunday night. They’ve now won 6 of their last 7 Ligue 1 fixtures and are ending 2016 strongly.
  • Bruno Genesio’s men have actually lost three home games this season and been unconvincing in a few others. They aren't totally reliable in front of their own fans but most people will expect them to beat Angers fairly easily.
  • Starting right back Rafael is injured tonight. He’s joined on the sidelines by midfielder Corentin Tolisso who has been enjoying a stellar season so far and highly rated by a number of big clubs.
  • A couple of other players such as Maxime Gonalons are rated doubtful too. Lyon have had less time to prepare for this fixture and put a lot of physical and mental energy into Sunday night, so there’s a chance they could be a little flat here.

Angers preview

  • Stephane Moulin’s men have failed to win any of their last six games, with four of those ending in defeat. They are starting to slide towards the relegation zone.
  • Angers have lost yet another player to a season ending cruciate ligament injury. Left back Yoann Andreu joins goalkeeper Letellier and winger Billy Ketkeo on the sidelines until the summer.
  • The current no2 goalkeeper Mathieu Michel is rated doubtful tonight because of a bruised hand. If he’s not deemed fit enough then the often unreliable Denis Petric will take over in between the sticks.
  • The visitors are no mugs on the road but recent away performances at Guingamp and Nancy were quite poor. They just seem out out of form a bit.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Angers shockingly won this fixture 2-0 last season but on current form it’ll be difficult for them to repeat it here. They’ve lost a lot of recent games, whilst Lyon are flying.
  • Therefore, it’s no surprise to see the hosts priced up on a -1.25 handicap line. The public expectation is that OL will claim a comfortable victory tonight.
  • However, I do think there are some factors which help Angers here The first is that they’ve had two extra days to prepare . Lyon could be physically and mentally fatigued after an important emotional win against Monaco.
  • Angers will also make themselves difficult to break down which could spell trouble for Lyon. They tend to get frustrated by teams who park the bus.
  • With this sort of gameplan and a bit of luck, especially if Lyon are sloppy, then it’s not out of the question Angers could get something. They could certainly  at least cover a +1.25/+1.5 handicap and they aren’t the sort of side who get blown out easily.
  • Angers are one of the big under sides in Ligue 1 so a goal line of 2.75 looks too high here. I’d say a tight Lyon win is the most likely outcome and I don't expect this to be much of a classic.

Prediction: 1-0

Recommended bet: None