France Ligue 1 – Monaco v Bastia Preview (3/12/16)

Monaco preview

  • The south coast side dropped some rare points in midweek, falling to a 1-1 draw in Dijon. For some reason they were very flat on the night, nowhere near their best.
  • Monaco have a 6-1-0 home record and have won every match here since the opening day of the season. Some of the beatings they’ve delivered have been massive.
  • Squad condition very good with very few injuries to worry about. There has been a lot of rotation recently so the players who start this game should be relatively fresh.

Bastia preview

  • SCB have ground out four good draws recently in tough fashion. They haven’t won any of their last 8 games though and are above the relegation zone only by virtue of goal difference.
  • The Corsicans aren’t known for their good away record and stats of 1-1-5 don’t read very well. Bastia have only lost one match by more than a one goal margin all season though, so rarely get blown out.
  • Squad condition is ok, although with the odd injury and suspension. The bigger problem might be how they cope with three games in the space of a week. This is a small squad with a number of older players. So there could be some physical issues.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Monaco were poor in midweek. They completely overlooked Dijon and produced their worst performance in a while. However, I expect a response here and their focus should return.
  • In terms of quality, there is night and day between the two teams. Monaco should easily beat Bastia, although the visitors have a knack of staying close in matches.
  • It’s this fact which is making me think twice about backing the Monaco handicap. I think -1.5 is perhaps risking too much, but I’m willing to stake on a -1.25 line.
  • At very worst, Monaco should win the game by one goal, but in all reality I’m expecting a comfortable success. This will probably be an over match too, although all the goals might be scored at one end.
  • I don’t expect Bastia to have much of the ball and their chances should be minimal. The last three times they visited Le Stade Louis II they lost 3-0 3-0 and 2-0. I’m anticipating something similar.

Prediction: 3-0

Recommended bet 1 unit: Monaco -1.25 @ 1.78