Montpellier preview

• The last time that MHSC played at home they claimed a shock 3-0 win against PSG. That however, was their only win in five games and they remain rooted in midtable.
• The south coast club have kept consecutive clean sheets at home but for the majority of this season they’ve had big problems at the back conceding a lot of goals. They play with too much of an open style.
• Key playmaker Ryad Boudebouz is ruled out of this match because of injury. This is a major blow because he’s their best player and he has great technical skills.
• The rest of the squad is in ok condition. Left back Jerome Roussillon remains out and this is an area in which Bordeaux will try and test them.

Bordeaux preview

• Suffered a hugely disappointing 0-4 loss at home to Monaco last week. Bordeaux were just dreadful in all aspects and outplayed by a top quality side.
• Jocelyn Gourvenecc’s men have now only won 2 of their last 10 games. They started the season well but are currently loitering in midtable and don’t appear to have great momentum.
• Les Girondins have injury problems across the board. Their most notable fresh absences here are left back Youssouf Sabaly and midfielder Jeremy Toulalan. A number of other players will miss out too.
• Bordeaux have drawn all of their last four away games and can be difficult to beat on the road.

Conclusion & betting analysis

• This is a tough one. I sense that both sides might be a little flat heading into the contest. Montpellier had that great win against PSG but have since lost in the league and also got knocked out of the cup in midweek.
• Bordeaux did manage to prevail in the cup but the memories of the Monaco loss are sure to linger. I have a feeling the coach will focus on defence in training this week. There is no way he’ll want them exposed like they were in that fixture.
• Normally I’d fancy the overs here but I’m less sure with Ryad Boudebouz missing for Montpellier. He is probably worth a goal per game to them in a number of different ways. If Bordeaux are more solid than expected then this game could open up.
• The goal line is set at 2.25 around the 1.80 mark, which is just a little too short. I have a nagging feeling this game might end with exactly two goals in it, with possibly a 1-1 draw the most likely outcome.
• So overall I’m not going to bet this match. The overs are tempting, but not tempting enough.

Prediction: 1-1

Recommended bet: None