France Ligue 2 – Brest v Bourg-en-Bresse Preview (16/12/16)

Brest preview

  • Bounced back from a difficult period by winning back to back games against two good teams, Troyes & Nimes
  • Brest are top of the table and a high % of victories is one of the main reasons why, along with possessing one of the best attacks in the division. They are full of goals and star man upfront Neal Maupay is in great form right now.
  • Squad condition virtually perfect ahead of this game with only right winger Valentin Lavigne ruled out, but he’s now missed nearly two months of action.
  • Brest are an all or nothing home team, winning 6 but also losing 3 contests here at Le Stade Francis le Ble. They’ve yet to draw a game here.

Bourg-en-Bresse preview

  • The visitors are unbeaten in six games and in the middle of a decent little run. They are a dangerous team who often show no fear and won’t be afraid of Brest.
  • Bourg have a lot of midfield absences here. Loic Damour is suspended, whilst the trio of Gamiette, Chere & Perradin are all injured. This isn’t as problematic as it sounds, they can revert to a two man midfield, but options are obviously lacking.
  • The rest of the team is pretty much at full strength though and the defensive duo of Bruce Abdoulaye and Ange Digbeu should both start after missing recent games.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Brest are short priced favourites around the 1.75 mark. This is fair enough and they have a good chance of winning the match, but Bourg are dangerous opponents. The visitors have goals in them and won’t be afraid to attack if necessary.
  • Teams that ‘have a go’ at Brest can be successful because due to the nature of their tactics, holes can be left at the back. Bourg have drawn games at Valenciennes, Sochaux and Nimes and only lost by one goal at Troyes, so I prefer to swerve the hosts at this price.
  • This should be an open game of football and I like the chances of the overs. With a goal line at at 2.25 I think this needs to be jumped on.
  • No team has had more over 2.5 games than Brest this season, with 7 of their 9 home games ending over this mark.Bourg can be an up and down team but I see them scoring here and contributing towards the bet.
  • I expect Brest to win something like 2-1 or 3-1, but I think it’s wiser just to stick with the over bet and avoid the home handicap.

Prediction: 3-1

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.85

Minimum odds acceptable: 1.65