France Ligue 2 – Nimes v Brest Preview (9/12/16)

Nimes preview

  • After a solid unbeaten run, Nimes have surprisingly lost two games against lower ranked opponents, Orleans and Auxerre. Those two defeats have really come out of the blue, but both were on the road and Nimes were possibly unfocused.
  • Les Crocos have struggled at home this season which is a surprise. This place is usually a fortress. They did finally grab their first win here against Reims (3-0) last time out.
  • Nimes have injury problems ahead of the game. Starting keeper Gauthier Gallon is still out, whilst at the back Anthony Briancon (susp) & Gael Angoula (inj) miss out. In addition, centre back Fethi Harek might not be 100% after returning from a knock which kept him out for a month.
  • Bernard Blaquart’s men have everyone available in midfield and attack, minus right winger Renaud Ripart. He’s an important player for them but Nimes do have good strength in depth out wide so is replaceable.

Brest preview

  • Obtained a vital 2-1 win against promotion rivals Troyes last time out. Brest have lost 3 of their last 5 games though and been wobbling of late.
  • Have only lost once away from home this season. That was recently at Amiens when they got easily outplayed (0-3).
  • Brest are at full strength, minus winger Valentin Lavigne who is still injured. The squad is in excellent overall condition.
  • Usually quite a positive team under the management of Jean Marc Furlan, but do tend to be more solid on the road. Just 7 of their 20 goals conceded have been away from home.

Conclusion & betting analysis

  • Both teams do possess good offensive strength and are naturally attack minded, so logic would suggest that this be quite an open game containing a few chances.
  • Each are top four ranked in terms of over 2.5 matches in Ligue 2 this season. However, most of Nimes’ higher scoring games tend to be away and vice versa for Brest.
  • The pitch at Le Stade Costieres hasn’t been at it’s best this year which might not suit the technical skills of either side.
  • Nimes are favourites on a DNB handicap around the 1.80 mark. This is probably fair but I don’t fancy them much here. With key defenders missing and a poor home record this year, Brest are more likely to take victory.
  • Over 2.25 is worth backing around the 1.85 mark. The concern is the pitch but there’s enough offensive strength on each side for goals to be scored. This isn’t a bad price, I expected it to be much shorter.

Prediction: 1-2

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2.25 goals @ 1.86

Minimum odds acceptable: 1.65