Burkina Faso preview
Draws against Cameroon and Gabon ultimately proved crucial for Burkina and a victory against Guinea Bissau secured their place as group winners. I think they’ve been good to watch in this tournament and have tried to get on the front foot as much as possible. Perhaps they should’ve scored more goals and in a game like this might need to be more clinical. Key playmaker Jonathan Pitroipa misses the rest of the tournament and Jonathan Zongo is out too. It’s just a case of other players stepping up to the plate. The two Traore brothers have looked quite good and Prince Nakoulma has been lively on the wings too. Burkina have threat on the counter attack and can’t be underestimated.
Perhaps the Eagles of Carthage have been the big surprise of the tournament so far. They lost against Senegal in the opening group game but dealt with this setback well. In that aforementioned game, it looked like they were too soft, lacking both physically and mentally. However, a much improved performance against Algeria and then an easy win against Zimbabwe has turned around their fortunes. It’s been noticeable how dangerous they’ve looked as a unit going forwards. The likes of Naim Sliti, & Youssef Msakni have especially been crucial towards their success. Tunisia are a good all round unit though and they have a top class defender in great form as well, Aymen Abdennour.
Conclusion & betting analysis
I personally rate Tunisia as the better side and I think they’ll win today. Burkina Faso have done well to make it this far but they really needed to be at full strength from this point onwards. Their defence should have conceded more goals and Tunisia look like the sort of side who will take advantage. I like the idea of backing the North African side on a -0.25 handicap around the 1.80 mark. At worst, I think they’ll take the game into extra time. This also feels like the sort of game which will end over. Both teams have demonstrated strong attacking tendencies. Neither is afraid to ‘go for it’ and the only danger is if everyone suddenly feels the pressure and tightens up. But with a goal line of 2.0 I can't really resist. Somehow, every Burkina game has contained exactly two goals this tournament, but realistically all of their contests should've gone over. It’s the same story with Tunisia and I expect a fairly open game overall.
Prediction: Burkina Faso 1-3 Tunisia
Recommended bet 1 unit: Tunisia -0.25 @ 1.82 (minimum odds acceptable 1.70)
Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.90 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)