Africa Cup of Nations – Cameroon v Guinea Bissau Preview (18/1/17)

Cameroon preview

There was a troubled lead up for the Indomitable Lions ahead of this tournament, but I thought they played pretty well for an hour against Burkina Faso. Their defence, as expected looked a bit shaky at times but they should've been 2 or 3 nil up such were the great chances wasted. Maybe with key striker Vincent Aboubakar in the side they’d have picked up a victory and he should return to the XI here. From an offensive point of view they looked dangerous and for me this is a big positive. Cameroon know they are the big favourites to win this match, but they are used to that and this sort of situation shouldn't bother them. I’d expect them to come out of the traps quickly and put Guinea Bissau under pressure with fast quick moving attacks.

Guinea - Bissau preview

The West African minnows shocked everyone in the opening match by equalising late against Gabon. But they deserved it. The ‘Wild Dogs’ put up a very plucky display after falling behind and created 2 or 3 really good chances prior to the equaliser. They are here at this tournament to enjoy themselves and there’s no pressure on their shoulders. You could tell that in the opening game. Obviously, quality levels aren’t there on paper but team spirit and unity is very high. One concern I do have for Guinea Bissau is what will they have left in the tank? An awful lot of energy and effort was used up against Gabon so they could be flat here.

Conclusion & betting analysis

Cameroon really should be winning this sort of game with plenty to spare. They are much the better side and now that Guinea Bissau have ‘climbed their everest’ by obtaining a point, then the minnows could struggle. Cameroon are 1.55 favourites and the -1 Asian handicap can be backed at a decent price. However, this hasn’t been a great tournament for favourites so far, especially on handicaps. So I’ll leave this market alone and instead take over 2 goals. This should be an open game and if Guinea Bissau fall behind then they are likely to have a go and try to get back into the game. They were fortunate that Gabon never put them under much pressure in the opening game but Cameroon are unlikely to let them off so lightly. At worst, this should contain a couple of goals for a push, but there are a number of different ways the bet can fully win. I just think that this is a line too low and the inflated price on overs is an overreaction to all the recent unders in the tournament.

Prediction: Cameroon 3-1 Guinea Bissau

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.78 (minimum odds acceptable 1.65)