Africa Cup of Nations – Guinea Bissau v Burkina Faso Preview (22/1/17)

Guinea Bissau preview

The huge underdogs in this African Nations Cup are enjoying themselves. They managed to obtain a point against host nation Gabon and scored a wonder goal against Cameroon, despite ultimately falling to defeat. Incredibly, a victory could potentially see them through to the knockout phase if Gabon drew or lost against Cameroon. I certainly think they’ll play without any pressure on their shoulders here and have absolutely nothing to lose. The approach of Guinea Bissau has to be applauded and I think they’ll be proactive as usual. It might be that a third match in the space of a week might be too much for them though, especially as there is now a change of venue to Franceville. All those high intensity minutes, followed by a trip across the country might catch up with them here.

Burkina Faso preview

The Burkina injury curse has struck again! Unfortunately, the Stallions lost two key men in the previous game, Jonathan Pitroipa & Jonathan Zongo. This a big blow for a team that often seems to struggle with fitness and injuries, but doesn’t lack for any heart. They have worked hard to draw against the supposed two strongest teams in Group A. Burkina now know that a win would see them qualify for the quarter finals and this is a position they simply have to take with only Guinea Bissau in their way. A draw could be potentially enough to see them progress if Gabon lose, so it’s possible the Stallions will have an eye on the other match. But right now all Paulo Duarte’s men can think about is winning. There should be enough quality in this team to get the job done and offensively they’ve looked fairly good in this tournament. But the extra pressure, expectations and condition of the squad are of concern.

Conclusion & betting analysis

I think this will be an open match. Both sides probably have to play for a victory and the only way a draw helps either is if Gabon are losing. Only then, and only late on would Burkina Faso think about settling for a draw. I expect them to come out firing though. Yes, they might have lost key playmaker Jonathan Pitroipa, but there’s still enough quality in this side, especially with the likes of Alain and Bertrand Traore around. Guinea Bissau have shown a tremendous attitude in this tournament and should ‘have a go’ as well. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they managed to score again. My first bet for the game is over 2 goals. This looks a juicy price in a match which could potentially be end to end. There’s no reason for either side to keep things tight for a long period of time. I’m also going to back Burkina Faso to win the game. A price of 1.90 is too big to turn down. With qualification strongly within their sights, the extra incentive should be too much for them not to obtain the result required against a team like Guinea Bissau.

Prediction: 1-3

Recommended bet 1 unit: Over 2 goals @ 1.97 (minimum odds acceptable 1.80)

Recommended bet 1 unit: Burkina Faso -0.5 @ 1.90 (minimum odds acceptable 1.75)